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Mundo·Brasil

Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil

Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.3%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Fernando Haddad 5.9%

Polymarket

$40,118,480 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.3%

Renan Santos 6.0%

Fernando Haddad 5.9%

Polymarket

$40,118,480 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,322,338 Vol.

43%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,814,936 Vol.

37%

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Renan Santos

$3,643,750 Vol.

6%

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Fernando Haddad

$3,037,378 Vol.

6%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,323,631 Vol.

2%

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Romeu Zema

$267,919 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,490,578 Vol.

1%

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Camilo Santana

$610,395 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$314,447 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$6,009,832 Vol.

<1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,003,942 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$5,006,138 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$1,040,534 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$5,232,986 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins of 2-6% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil's October 4 election, with high undecided rates above 10% keeping the trader consensus tight at 42.5% for Lula versus 37.4% for Flávio. Runoff simulations reflect even closer contests, often ties or Flávio edges, driven by his rising support from the Bolsonaro family's base following Jair's December endorsement and amid voter frustration with economic stagnation and the unpopular political class. Fragmented right-wing alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado and Tarcísio de Freitas poll below 6%, limiting consolidation. Separation could emerge from June-August party conventions formalizing nominations, fresh economic data, or scandals affecting either incumbent Lula's age-related concerns or Flávio's past probes.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$40,118,480
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March, including Paraná Pesquisas, Gerp, and AtlasIntel, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins of 2-6% in first-round voting intentions for Brazil's October 4 election, with high undecided rates above 10% keeping the trader consensus tight at 42.5% for Lula versus 37.4% for Flávio. Runoff simulations reflect even closer contests, often ties or Flávio edges, driven by his rising support from the Bolsonaro family's base following Jair's December endorsement and amid voter frustration with economic stagnation and the unpopular political class. Fragmented right-wing alternatives like Ronaldo Caiado and Tarcísio de Freitas poll below 6%, limiting consolidation. Separation could emerge from June-August party conventions formalizing nominations, fresh economic data, or scandals affecting either incumbent Lula's age-related concerns or Flávio's past probes.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$40,118,480
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 43%, seguido de "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 37%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 43¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" ha generado $40.1 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 43%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 37%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.