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Mundo·Brasil

Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil

Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.0%

Fernando Haddad 5.7%

Renan Santos 5.5%

Polymarket

$35,207,344 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.0%

Fernando Haddad 5.7%

Renan Santos 5.5%

Polymarket

$35,207,344 Vol.

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,252,103 Vol.

43%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,751,576 Vol.

40%

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Fernando Haddad

$2,904,445 Vol.

6%

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Renan Santos

$3,509,373 Vol.

6%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$122,927 Vol.

3%

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Romeu Zema

$69,086 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$5,857,095 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,462,476 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$150,758 Vol.

<1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$2,830,523 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$4,809,205 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$4,096,223 Vol.

<1%

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Camilo Santana

$129,179 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$262,423 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including a March 30 Reuters report on a tied simulated runoff and an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro edging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47.6% to 46.6%, have driven trader consensus to a near-deadlock, with Lula at 42.5% implied probability and Flávio at 40% for the October 4 first-round vote. Lula's incumbency advantages in the Northeast are offset by Flávio's gains in the South and Southeast, fueled by his father's enduring base despite ineligibility, amid voter frustration over inflation and fiscal policy. The race remains tight due to undecideds exceeding 10% and fragmented fields; separation could arise from upcoming debates, economic data releases, or coalition endorsements before the potential runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$35,207,344
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including a March 30 Reuters report on a tied simulated runoff and an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro edging President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 47.6% to 46.6%, have driven trader consensus to a near-deadlock, with Lula at 42.5% implied probability and Flávio at 40% for the October 4 first-round vote. Lula's incumbency advantages in the Northeast are offset by Flávio's gains in the South and Southeast, fueled by his father's enduring base despite ineligibility, amid voter frustration over inflation and fiscal policy. The race remains tight due to undecideds exceeding 10% and fragmented fields; separation could arise from upcoming debates, economic data releases, or coalition endorsements before the potential runoff.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$35,207,344
Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 43%, seguido de "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 40%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 43¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" ha generado $35.2 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Sep 18, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" es "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" con 43%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Flávio Bolsonaro" con 40%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Brasil" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.