Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution over the Iranian rial's trajectory amid tightening US sanctions and regional tensions, with the USD/IRR free-market rate hovering near 710,000 as of late October 2024 after spiking post-Israel's strikes on Iran. Key drivers include enforced restrictions on Iran's oil exports to China—its primary buyer—capping revenues despite Brent crude above $70/barrel, alongside domestic inflation exceeding 35% from subsidy reforms under President Pezeshkian. Recent US seizures of Iranian tankers signal intensified enforcement, while stalled nuclear talks dim JCPOA revival hopes. The November 5 US election looms large, as a Trump victory could revive "maximum pressure" policies, potentially accelerating devaluation; inauguration on January 20 may introduce new measures before March 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$346,558 Vol.
↑ 1,8 Mio.
9%
↑ 1,7 Mio.
25%
↑ 1.6M
54%
↓ 1,4 Mio.
4%
↓ 1,3 Mio.
6%
$346,558 Vol.
↑ 1,8 Mio.
9%
↑ 1,7 Mio.
25%
↑ 1.6M
54%
↓ 1,4 Mio.
4%
↓ 1,3 Mio.
6%
This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the March 31, 2026, exchange rate data is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 2, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution over the Iranian rial's trajectory amid tightening US sanctions and regional tensions, with the USD/IRR free-market rate hovering near 710,000 as of late October 2024 after spiking post-Israel's strikes on Iran. Key drivers include enforced restrictions on Iran's oil exports to China—its primary buyer—capping revenues despite Brent crude above $70/barrel, alongside domestic inflation exceeding 35% from subsidy reforms under President Pezeshkian. Recent US seizures of Iranian tankers signal intensified enforcement, while stalled nuclear talks dim JCPOA revival hopes. The November 5 US election looms large, as a Trump victory could revive "maximum pressure" policies, potentially accelerating devaluation; inauguration on January 20 may introduce new measures before March 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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