Traders assign a 97.7% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting his established position in the presidency and absence of institutional or personal pressures that historically prompt early departures. With nearly two years remaining in the term, no major legislative defeats, health disclosures, or bipartisan demands for exit have emerged to shift consensus. The wisdom of crowds in this market aligns with low historical base rates for presidential resignations outside extraordinary circumstances. Realistic scenarios that could still move odds include sudden medical events, unforeseen legal rulings with immediate effect, or internal party shifts ahead of the 2028 cycle, though none currently register as probable catalysts within the resolution window.