Constitutional barriers in both Canada and the United States drive the near-certain trader consensus against Alberta joining the US. Any provincial secession would require approval through the Canadian constitutional amendment process, including federal and provincial consent, followed by separate US congressional and state ratification for admission as a new state. No major Alberta political party or federal movement has advanced such a proposal, and bilateral relations remain focused on trade, energy policy, and border cooperation rather than territorial change. Historical precedent shows no successful North American provincial-to-state transitions. Late-breaking shifts could arise only from unprecedented events such as a sustained independence referendum in Alberta combined with US policy reversal, though both remain remote within any near-term resolution window.