Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,212,958 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
11%
VAE
7%
Katar
4%
Bahrain
3%
Kuwait
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Jordanien
1%
Türkei
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,212,958 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,034,793 Vol.
11%
VAE
$2,534,318 Vol.
7%
Katar
$926,220 Vol.
4%
Bahrain
$386,444 Vol.
3%
Kuwait
$206,606 Vol.
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$931,837 Vol.
1%
Ein EU-Land
$451,068 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$183,019 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$469,951 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$722,115 Vol.
1%
Oman
$128,149 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$905,087 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$333,350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,212,958Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,212,958Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Israel and Iran persist without direct military action against Iran since Israel's airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack. In the past 30 days, no verifiable strikes on Iranian territory have occurred, though Israel has escalated operations against Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, prompting Iranian threats of retaliation. The US and UK continue airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—another Iran-backed group disrupting Red Sea shipping—but emphasize de-escalation to avoid broader conflict. Incoming Trump administration foreign policy signals post-January 20 inauguration, including potential sanctions or support for Israeli actions, could heighten risks before the March 31 deadline, amid stalled nuclear diplomacy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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