The US and Israel initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities like Bushehr and Natanz, ballistic missile production sites, air defenses, and leadership, marking the conflict's fourth week. Recent escalations include Israeli strikes on over 250 Iranian and proxy targets this weekend, US deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, and President Trump's postponed threats to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Saudi bases and Israeli sites, drawing in Houthis, while Gulf states defend but avoid offensive action. With just days until March 31 resolution, traders weigh slim odds of additional countries joining amid de-escalation signals and diplomacy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,401,755 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
7%
VAE
6%
Katar
3%
Bahrain
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Kuwait
1%
Türkei
1%
Jordanien
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,401,755 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,130,718 Vol.
7%
VAE
$2,581,336 Vol.
6%
Katar
$937,679 Vol.
3%
Bahrain
$387,936 Vol.
2%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$938,064 Vol.
1%
Ein EU-Land
$459,183 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$209,267 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$474,133 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$186,817 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$723,944 Vol.
1%
Oman
$129,544 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$908,400 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$334,732 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities like Bushehr and Natanz, ballistic missile production sites, air defenses, and leadership, marking the conflict's fourth week. Recent escalations include Israeli strikes on over 250 Iranian and proxy targets this weekend, US deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, and President Trump's postponed threats to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Saudi bases and Israeli sites, drawing in Houthis, while Gulf states defend but avoid offensive action. With just days until March 31 resolution, traders weigh slim odds of additional countries joining amid de-escalation signals and diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,401,755Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities like Bushehr and Natanz, ballistic missile production sites, air defenses, and leadership, marking the conflict's fourth week. Recent escalations include Israeli strikes on over 250 Iranian and proxy targets this weekend, US deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, and President Trump's postponed threats to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Saudi bases and Israeli sites, drawing in Houthis, while Gulf states defend but avoid offensive action. With just days until March 31 resolution, traders weigh slim odds of additional countries joining amid de-escalation signals and diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,401,755Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Israel initiated a major military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with coordinated airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities like Bushehr and Natanz, ballistic missile production sites, air defenses, and leadership, marking the conflict's fourth week. Recent escalations include Israeli strikes on over 250 Iranian and proxy targets this weekend, US deployments of 2,000 airborne troops, and President Trump's postponed threats to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Saudi bases and Israeli sites, drawing in Houthis, while Gulf states defend but avoid offensive action. With just days until March 31 resolution, traders weigh slim odds of additional countries joining amid de-escalation signals and diplomacy.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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