The United States and Israel have led an ongoing airstrike campaign against Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile facilities since February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 targets hit amid daily operations that dominate trader consensus on this market resolving March 31. In the past 48 hours, Israel struck nuclear and steel plants near Bushehr and Tehran, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation including an attack injuring 12 US troops at a Saudi base; Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis also fired their first missile at Israel, escalating regional involvement. President Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz adds pressure, though no other countries like the UK, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan have joined direct strikes, leaving odds focused on potential late escalations before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,273,182 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
7%
VAE
6%
Katar
4%
Bahrain
3%
Kuwait
2%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Jordanien
1%
Türkei
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,273,182 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,071,560 Vol.
7%
VAE
$2,542,525 Vol.
6%
Katar
$929,107 Vol.
4%
Bahrain
$386,977 Vol.
3%
Kuwait
$208,348 Vol.
2%
Ein EU-Land
$454,005 Vol.
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$935,366 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$184,755 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$470,233 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$722,535 Vol.
1%
Oman
$128,245 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$906,051 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$333,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led an ongoing airstrike campaign against Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile facilities since February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 targets hit amid daily operations that dominate trader consensus on this market resolving March 31. In the past 48 hours, Israel struck nuclear and steel plants near Bushehr and Tehran, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation including an attack injuring 12 US troops at a Saudi base; Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis also fired their first missile at Israel, escalating regional involvement. President Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz adds pressure, though no other countries like the UK, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan have joined direct strikes, leaving odds focused on potential late escalations before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,273,182Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel have led an ongoing airstrike campaign against Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile facilities since February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 targets hit amid daily operations that dominate trader consensus on this market resolving March 31. In the past 48 hours, Israel struck nuclear and steel plants near Bushehr and Tehran, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation including an attack injuring 12 US troops at a Saudi base; Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis also fired their first missile at Israel, escalating regional involvement. President Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz adds pressure, though no other countries like the UK, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan have joined direct strikes, leaving odds focused on potential late escalations before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,273,182Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel have led an ongoing airstrike campaign against Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and missile facilities since February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 targets hit amid daily operations that dominate trader consensus on this market resolving March 31. In the past 48 hours, Israel struck nuclear and steel plants near Bushehr and Tehran, prompting Iranian vows of retaliation including an attack injuring 12 US troops at a Saudi base; Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis also fired their first missile at Israel, escalating regional involvement. President Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz adds pressure, though no other countries like the UK, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan have joined direct strikes, leaving odds focused on potential late escalations before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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