Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models dominate trader sentiment with a 98.7% implied probability for holding the #2 spot on the LM Arena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of end-March 2026, as the base version sits at 1500 Elo while its "thinking" variant leads at 1504—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491, preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude Opus 4.6's recent March release, showcasing superior capabilities in text-to-text benchmarks spanning math, coding, and creative writing amid fierce competition from GPT-5.4 and DeepSeek updates. With the leaderboard last updated March 26, stability prevails, though a late surge in user votes or unannounced model tweaks from rivals like xAI or OpenAI could realistically displace it before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 98.6%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Moonshot <1%
$568,906 Vol.
$568,906 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 98.6%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Moonshot <1%
$568,906 Vol.
$568,906 Vol.

Anthropic
99%

xAI
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 models dominate trader sentiment with a 98.7% implied probability for holding the #2 spot on the LM Arena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of end-March 2026, as the base version sits at 1500 Elo while its "thinking" variant leads at 1504—outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1493) and xAI's Grok 4.20 Beta (1491, preliminary). This positioning stems from Claude Opus 4.6's recent March release, showcasing superior capabilities in text-to-text benchmarks spanning math, coding, and creative writing amid fierce competition from GPT-5.4 and DeepSeek updates. With the leaderboard last updated March 26, stability prevails, though a late surge in user votes or unannounced model tweaks from rivals like xAI or OpenAI could realistically displace it before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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