Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, massive Q1 fundraising haul of $1.75 million with $2.3 million cash on hand reported April 15, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" designation in February targeting the seat as a flip opportunity against incumbent Jen Kiggans. Challengers like James Osyf (7.9%) and Matt Strickler trail due to limited resources and visibility in a crowded field of seven, with no recent polls shifting the crowded primary dynamics ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertElaine Luria 84%
Matt Strickler 4.0%
Burk Stringfellow 3.9%
Nicolaus Sleister 3.0%
Elaine Luria
84%
Matt Strickler
4%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Nicolaus Sleister
3%
Patrick Mosolf
2%
James Osyf
8%
Nila Devanath
1%
Elaine Luria 84%
Matt Strickler 4.0%
Burk Stringfellow 3.9%
Nicolaus Sleister 3.0%
Elaine Luria
84%
Matt Strickler
4%
Burk Stringfellow
4%
Nicolaus Sleister
3%
Patrick Mosolf
2%
James Osyf
8%
Nila Devanath
1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Rep. Elaine Luria dominates trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her name recognition from serving the district 2019–2023, massive Q1 fundraising haul of $1.75 million with $2.3 million cash on hand reported April 15, and early DCCC "Red to Blue" designation in February targeting the seat as a flip opportunity against incumbent Jen Kiggans. Challengers like James Osyf (7.9%) and Matt Strickler trail due to limited resources and visibility in a crowded field of seven, with no recent polls shifting the crowded primary dynamics ahead of summer campaigning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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