US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas, amid no direct bilateral military confrontation. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel—prompted US diplomatic calls for restraint while affirming support for Israel's defense, but elicited Iranian vows of retaliation without further escalation. Indirect Oman-mediated talks stalled earlier this year, with sanctions and nuclear program disputes persisting as barriers. The incoming Trump administration's January 20 inauguration looms as a pivotal event, potentially reviving "maximum pressure" tactics that historically dimmed negotiation paths, absent unforeseen diplomatic surges or regional ceasefires expanding to include Iran.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWaffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
Waffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
$55,814,046 Vol.
31. März
4%
7. April
12%
15. April
24%
30. April
40%
31. Mai
54%
30. Juni
61%
31. Dezember
76%
$55,814,046 Vol.
31. März
$35,186,575 Vol.
4%
7. April
$852,183 Vol.
12%
15. April
$5,376,272 Vol.
24%
30. April
$6,088,063 Vol.
40%
31. Mai
$2,159,558 Vol.
54%
30. Juni
$2,214,026 Vol.
61%
31. Dezember
$454,063 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas, amid no direct bilateral military confrontation. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel—prompted US diplomatic calls for restraint while affirming support for Israel's defense, but elicited Iranian vows of retaliation without further escalation. Indirect Oman-mediated talks stalled earlier this year, with sanctions and nuclear program disputes persisting as barriers. The incoming Trump administration's January 20 inauguration looms as a pivotal event, potentially reviving "maximum pressure" tactics that historically dimmed negotiation paths, absent unforeseen diplomatic surges or regional ceasefires expanding to include Iran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volumen
$55,814,046Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas, amid no direct bilateral military confrontation. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel—prompted US diplomatic calls for restraint while affirming support for Israel's defense, but elicited Iranian vows of retaliation without further escalation. Indirect Oman-mediated talks stalled earlier this year, with sanctions and nuclear program disputes persisting as barriers. The incoming Trump administration's January 20 inauguration looms as a pivotal event, potentially reviving "maximum pressure" tactics that historically dimmed negotiation paths, absent unforeseen diplomatic surges or regional ceasefires expanding to include Iran.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$55,814,046Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran ceasefire prospects hinge on de-escalation in proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas, amid no direct bilateral military confrontation. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliating for Tehran's October 1 missile attack on Israel—prompted US diplomatic calls for restraint while affirming support for Israel's defense, but elicited Iranian vows of retaliation without further escalation. Indirect Oman-mediated talks stalled earlier this year, with sanctions and nuclear program disputes persisting as barriers. The incoming Trump administration's January 20 inauguration looms as a pivotal event, potentially reviving "maximum pressure" tactics that historically dimmed negotiation paths, absent unforeseen diplomatic surges or regional ceasefires expanding to include Iran.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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