Stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations through Oman, coupled with Iran's accelerated uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels as reported by the IAEA in late 2023 and early 2024, form the core driver behind traders' 78.5% implied probability favoring no deal by April 30. Recent US sanctions on Iranian entities tied to the nuclear program, alongside Tehran's rejection of proposals demanding strict curbs without full sanctions relief, underscore persistent gaps. Heightened regional tensions from Israel-Iran exchanges and the Gaza conflict have sidelined diplomacy, with no scheduled talks before the deadline, reinforcing trader consensus on impasse over JCPOA revival.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAtomabkommen zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum 30. April?
Atomabkommen zwischen den USA und dem Iran bis zum 30. April?
Ja
$68,169 Vol.
$68,169 Vol.
Ja
$68,169 Vol.
$68,169 Vol.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations through Oman, coupled with Iran's accelerated uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels as reported by the IAEA in late 2023 and early 2024, form the core driver behind traders' 78.5% implied probability favoring no deal by April 30. Recent US sanctions on Iranian entities tied to the nuclear program, alongside Tehran's rejection of proposals demanding strict curbs without full sanctions relief, underscore persistent gaps. Heightened regional tensions from Israel-Iran exchanges and the Gaza conflict have sidelined diplomacy, with no scheduled talks before the deadline, reinforcing trader consensus on impasse over JCPOA revival.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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