Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Josée Massi at 99.8% implied probability to win the Toulon mayoral election, driven by her commanding lead in recent polls showing over 60% first-round support, strong backing from the ruling Les Républicains party as Hubert Falco's endorsed successor, and fragmented opposition lacking a viable challenger. Key developments include Massi's victory in the LR primary and low turnout expectations favoring the incumbent machine in this right-leaning Var department stronghold. Realistic challenges remain slim but could arise from a left-wing consolidation boosting runners like Jean-Michel Ghiotto, an unforeseen scandal, or court validation delays on voter rolls ahead of the March 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWahlsieger bei den Bürgermeisterwahlen in Toulon
Wahlsieger bei den Bürgermeisterwahlen in Toulon
Josée Massi 99.8%
Jean-Michel Ghiotto <1%
Magali Brunel <1%
Laure Lavalette <1%
$291,642 Vol.
$291,642 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
100%
Jean-Michel Ghiotto
<1%
Magali Brunel
<1%
Laure Lavalette
<1%
Isaline Cornil
<1%
Michel Bonnus
<1%
Josée Massi 99.8%
Jean-Michel Ghiotto <1%
Magali Brunel <1%
Laure Lavalette <1%
$291,642 Vol.
$291,642 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
$49,806 Vol.
100%
Jean-Michel Ghiotto
$16,343 Vol.
<1%
Magali Brunel
$176,836 Vol.
<1%
Laure Lavalette
$48,656 Vol.
<1%
Isaline Cornil
$0 Vol.
<1%
Michel Bonnus
$0 Vol.
<1%
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volumen
$291,642Enddatum
Mar 22, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$291,642Enddatum
Mar 22, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Josée Massi at 99.8% implied probability to win the Toulon mayoral election, driven by her commanding lead in recent polls showing over 60% first-round support, strong backing from the ruling Les Républicains party as Hubert Falco's endorsed successor, and fragmented opposition lacking a viable challenger. Key developments include Massi's victory in the LR primary and low turnout expectations favoring the incumbent machine in this right-leaning Var department stronghold. Realistic challenges remain slim but could arise from a left-wing consolidation boosting runners like Jean-Michel Ghiotto, an unforeseen scandal, or court validation delays on voter rolls ahead of the March 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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