**Spain’s minority Socialist-led government under Pedro Sánchez faces mounting pressure from opposition parties and corruption investigations involving allies and family members, yet has repeatedly ruled out an early general election.** Recent regional contests, including the May 2026 Andalusian vote where the conservative Popular Party (PP) retained a strong majority, underscore a broader rightward shift in voter sentiment and have fueled opposition demands for a national vote. Sánchez’s administration depends on support from smaller regional parties such as Junts for parliamentary stability, creating ongoing uncertainty around the 2026 budget process that could test coalition cohesion. Constitutional rules allow the prime minister to propose dissolution at any time (absent a pending no-confidence motion or state of emergency), but Sánchez has signaled intent to serve out the term until the August 2027 deadline. Trader consensus on Polymarket-style markets reflects low odds of a snap call in 2026, driven by the government’s explicit rejections, lack of viable no-confidence support from wary smaller parties, and the prime minister’s track record of strategic timing in prior cycles. Key upcoming catalysts include budget negotiations and any escalation in judicial proceedings.