Recent energy price pressures, particularly gasoline, combined with rising consumer inflation expectations have positioned 3.6% as the leading outcome for September 2026 CPI year-over-year. August’s 3.4% annual rate reflected a 0.4% monthly increase driven by a 3.9% gasoline jump, while New York Fed survey data showed one-year-ahead expectations climbing 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% in September—the highest since mid-2023. Analysts’ models anticipate a 0.5% monthly headline gain that would lift the annual figure to 3.6%, with core measures holding near 2.4%. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus while assigning meaningful probability to 3.5% or 3.7% depending on final shelter and used-vehicle readings. The October 14 BLS release remains the key near-term catalyst.