Labour's heavy losses in the May 2026 local elections, combined with multiple cabinet resignations including those of Wes Streeting, John Healey, and Al Carns, have intensified internal pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer and elevated speculation about a leadership change. Andy Burnham, as Greater Manchester mayor and a popular party figure seeking a parliamentary seat via the Makerfield by-election, has emerged as the clearest alternative, with traders viewing his return to Westminster as a key step toward a potential contest. The 17.5% probability assigned to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over Starmer's resilience and the exact timing of any transition, while lower-priced names such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband trail due to comparatively weaker positioning amid ongoing party divisions. Upcoming by-election results and further polling will likely influence near-term market movements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAndy Burnham 63.1%
Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026 18%
Angela Rayner 2.9%
Wes Streeting 2.8%
$9,887,740 Vol.
$9,887,740 Vol.
Andy Burnham
63%
Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026
18%
Angela Rayner
3%
Wes Streeting
3%
Ed Miliband
2%
Al Carns
2%
Rupert Lowe
2%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Nigel Farage
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
John Healey
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Person B
<1%
Andy Burnham 63.1%
Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026 18%
Angela Rayner 2.9%
Wes Streeting 2.8%
$9,887,740 Vol.
$9,887,740 Vol.
Andy Burnham
63%
Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026
18%
Angela Rayner
3%
Wes Streeting
3%
Ed Miliband
2%
Al Carns
2%
Rupert Lowe
2%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Nigel Farage
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
John Healey
<1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Lucy Powell
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Person B
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Labour's heavy losses in the May 2026 local elections, combined with multiple cabinet resignations including those of Wes Streeting, John Healey, and Al Carns, have intensified internal pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer and elevated speculation about a leadership change. Andy Burnham, as Greater Manchester mayor and a popular party figure seeking a parliamentary seat via the Makerfield by-election, has emerged as the clearest alternative, with traders viewing his return to Westminster as a key step toward a potential contest. The 17.5% probability assigned to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over Starmer's resilience and the exact timing of any transition, while lower-priced names such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband trail due to comparatively weaker positioning amid ongoing party divisions. Upcoming by-election results and further polling will likely influence near-term market movements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen