Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% chance that no new UK Prime Minister emerges in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's entrenched position despite Labour's rocky start, including backbench revolts over winter fuel cuts and fiscal austerity in the October budget. Angela Rayner leads successors at 22%, bolstered by her deputy role, union support, and rising profile amid government discontent. Ed Miliband's 12.6% stems from his energy secretary influence and left-wing appeal, while Nigel Farage's 9.5% captures Reform UK's poll surge to 30% amid Labour's slump to 25%. Recent drivers include poor by-election results and Starmer's dipping approval, though fixed-term parliament reduces snap election risks before 2029.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026 36%
Angela Rayner 22%
Ed Miliband 12.6%
Nigel Farage 9.5%
$3,101,654 Vol.
$3,101,654 Vol.

Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026
36%

Angela Rayner
22%

Ed Miliband
13%

Nigel Farage
10%

Rupert Lowe
5%

Wes Streeting
5%

Andy Burnham
4%

Shabana Mahmood
3%

Yvette Cooper
2%

Al Carns
1%

Rachel Reeves
1%

Lucy Powell
1%

Kemi Badenoch
<1%

Darren Jones
<1%

David Lammy
<1%

Boris Johnson
<1%

Ed Davey
<1%

Bridget Phillipson
<1%

Robert Jenrick
<1%

James Cleverly
<1%
Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026 36%
Angela Rayner 22%
Ed Miliband 12.6%
Nigel Farage 9.5%
$3,101,654 Vol.
$3,101,654 Vol.

Kein neuer Premierminister im Jahr 2026
36%

Angela Rayner
22%

Ed Miliband
13%

Nigel Farage
10%

Rupert Lowe
5%

Wes Streeting
5%

Andy Burnham
4%

Shabana Mahmood
3%

Yvette Cooper
2%

Al Carns
1%

Rachel Reeves
1%

Lucy Powell
1%

Kemi Badenoch
<1%

Darren Jones
<1%

David Lammy
<1%

Boris Johnson
<1%

Ed Davey
<1%

Bridget Phillipson
<1%

Robert Jenrick
<1%

James Cleverly
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36% chance that no new UK Prime Minister emerges in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's entrenched position despite Labour's rocky start, including backbench revolts over winter fuel cuts and fiscal austerity in the October budget. Angela Rayner leads successors at 22%, bolstered by her deputy role, union support, and rising profile amid government discontent. Ed Miliband's 12.6% stems from his energy secretary influence and left-wing appeal, while Nigel Farage's 9.5% captures Reform UK's poll surge to 30% amid Labour's slump to 25%. Recent drivers include poor by-election results and Starmer's dipping approval, though fixed-term parliament reduces snap election risks before 2029.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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