Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, as the frontrunner at 36.5% implied probability to succeed Tim Cook, reflecting his rising profile through key product launches like Vision Pro and iPhone hardware oversight, combined with strong internal popularity and youth at 40—echoing Cook's own supply chain roots. Sabih Khan trails at 12% on his proven operations leadership during supply disruptions, while Craig Federighi (9.2%) and Greg Joswiak (6.3%) gain from software and marketing expertise amid Apple Intelligence rollout. No recent Cook retirement signals have emerged in the past month, sustaining steady odds amid ongoing executive grooming, with investor scrutiny intensifying ahead of future earnings calls.