Trader consensus favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at 59% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 2 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no expected development over the next week. Cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for genesis, combined with strong vertical wind shear, suppress early activity, aligning with historical patterns where pre-June 1 named storms have occurred fewer than 20 times since 1851. Neutral ENSO conditions persist, but NHC outlooks resume May 15, when warming trends could introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBenannte Sturmformen vor der Hurrikan-Saison?
Benannte Sturmformen vor der Hurrikan-Saison?
Ja
$329,512 Vol.
$329,512 Vol.
Ja
$329,512 Vol.
$329,512 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at 59% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 2 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no expected development over the next week. Cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for genesis, combined with strong vertical wind shear, suppress early activity, aligning with historical patterns where pre-June 1 named storms have occurred fewer than 20 times since 1851. Neutral ENSO conditions persist, but NHC outlooks resume May 15, when warming trends could introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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