Market-implied probabilities crown June at 31.5% for a SpaceX IPO, reflecting trader optimism amid Starship test successes and Starlink's explosive growth to over 4 million subscribers, yet the wide dispersion—down to 1.2% for March and 12.5% for no IPO before 2027—signals profound uncertainty without an S-1 filing. Elon Musk's firm stance against listing until reliable Mars capability clashes with private funding prowess, including a recent $210 billion valuation tender that quells capital needs. Near-term months like July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) gain from a frothy tech IPO window, while later odds hinge on regulatory approvals and operational milestones differentiating resolution paths.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIn welchem Monat wird SpaceX an die Börse gehen?
In welchem Monat wird SpaceX an die Börse gehen?
Juni 38%
Juli 12.4%
November 9.4%
September 8.3%
März
1%
April
9%
Mai
6%
Juni
33%
Juli
12%
August
8%
September
11%
Oktober
4%
November
9%
Dezember
1%
Kein Börsengang vor 2027
12%
Juni 38%
Juli 12.4%
November 9.4%
September 8.3%
März
1%
April
9%
Mai
6%
Juni
33%
Juli
12%
August
8%
September
11%
Oktober
4%
November
9%
Dezember
1%
Kein Börsengang vor 2027
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied probabilities crown June at 31.5% for a SpaceX IPO, reflecting trader optimism amid Starship test successes and Starlink's explosive growth to over 4 million subscribers, yet the wide dispersion—down to 1.2% for March and 12.5% for no IPO before 2027—signals profound uncertainty without an S-1 filing. Elon Musk's firm stance against listing until reliable Mars capability clashes with private funding prowess, including a recent $210 billion valuation tender that quells capital needs. Near-term months like July (12.4%) and September (10.7%) gain from a frothy tech IPO window, while later odds hinge on regulatory approvals and operational milestones differentiating resolution paths.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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