Trader consensus heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 60.5% implied probability, driven by the company's accelerated 2026 cadence targeting 140-180 missions annually to expand Starlink amid intensifying satellite competition. Recent catalysts include confirmed back-to-back Starlink missions on April 2 from Cape Canaveral SLC-40 and Vandenberg SLC-4E, Cygnus NG-24 resupply retargeted to April 8 after a 21-minute delay last week, and the U.S. Space Force's late-March reassignment of GPS III SV-10 to Falcon 9 NET late April due to ULA Vulcan setbacks. Additional NET slots for Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 and Starship Flight 12 further support 14 (23%) and 15 (16.5%) as viable, with Q1's unbroken pace—capped by March 30's Transporter-16—pricing in minimal disruptions despite weather risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert13 63%
14 26%
15 13%
16 8%
$16,010 Vol.
$16,010 Vol.
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
59%
14
26%
15
13%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
13 63%
14 26%
15 13%
16 8%
$16,010 Vol.
$16,010 Vol.
≤11
3%
12
6%
13
59%
14
26%
15
13%
16
8%
17 or more
2%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 60.5% implied probability, driven by the company's accelerated 2026 cadence targeting 140-180 missions annually to expand Starlink amid intensifying satellite competition. Recent catalysts include confirmed back-to-back Starlink missions on April 2 from Cape Canaveral SLC-40 and Vandenberg SLC-4E, Cygnus NG-24 resupply retargeted to April 8 after a 21-minute delay last week, and the U.S. Space Force's late-March reassignment of GPS III SV-10 to Falcon 9 NET late April due to ULA Vulcan setbacks. Additional NET slots for Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3 and Starship Flight 12 further support 14 (23%) and 15 (16.5%) as viable, with Q1's unbroken pace—capped by March 30's Transporter-16—pricing in minimal disruptions despite weather risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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