Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 61% for any Category 4 hurricane landfalling in the continental United States before 2027, aligning with NOAA's historical HURDAT2 database showing such intense strikes average 0.2 per year since 1851—roughly one every five seasons—with the last confirmed case Hurricane Ida in Louisiana (2021). The hyperactive 2024 Atlantic season, driven by record ocean heat content and weak wind shear, produced Helene and Milton that peaked Category 4-5 offshore but weakened to Category 3-4 at Florida landfalls per NHC advisories, avoiding higher thresholds amid steering currents. As the season nears its November 30 close with no immediate threats per NHC outlooks, and expected La Niña patterns boosting 2025-2026 activity uncertainly, traders emphasize base-rate rarity over elevated risk. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA could prompt shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Ja
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 61% for any Category 4 hurricane landfalling in the continental United States before 2027, aligning with NOAA's historical HURDAT2 database showing such intense strikes average 0.2 per year since 1851—roughly one every five seasons—with the last confirmed case Hurricane Ida in Louisiana (2021). The hyperactive 2024 Atlantic season, driven by record ocean heat content and weak wind shear, produced Helene and Milton that peaked Category 4-5 offshore but weakened to Category 3-4 at Florida landfalls per NHC advisories, avoiding higher thresholds amid steering currents. As the season nears its November 30 close with no immediate threats per NHC outlooks, and expected La Niña patterns boosting 2025-2026 activity uncertainly, traders emphasize base-rate rarity over elevated risk. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA could prompt shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 61% for any Category 4 hurricane landfalling in the continental United States before 2027, aligning with NOAA's historical HURDAT2 database showing such intense strikes average 0.2 per year since 1851—roughly one every five seasons—with the last confirmed case Hurricane Ida in Louisiana (2021). The hyperactive 2024 Atlantic season, driven by record ocean heat content and weak wind shear, produced Helene and Milton that peaked Category 4-5 offshore but weakened to Category 3-4 at Florida landfalls per NHC advisories, avoiding higher thresholds amid steering currents. As the season nears its November 30 close with no immediate threats per NHC outlooks, and expected La Niña patterns boosting 2025-2026 activity uncertainly, traders emphasize base-rate rarity over elevated risk. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA could prompt shifts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 61% for any Category 4 hurricane landfalling in the continental United States before 2027, aligning with NOAA's historical HURDAT2 database showing such intense strikes average 0.2 per year since 1851—roughly one every five seasons—with the last confirmed case Hurricane Ida in Louisiana (2021). The hyperactive 2024 Atlantic season, driven by record ocean heat content and weak wind shear, produced Helene and Milton that peaked Category 4-5 offshore but weakened to Category 3-4 at Florida landfalls per NHC advisories, avoiding higher thresholds amid steering currents. As the season nears its November 30 close with no immediate threats per NHC outlooks, and expected La Niña patterns boosting 2025-2026 activity uncertainly, traders emphasize base-rate rarity over elevated risk. Updated seasonal forecasts from NOAA could prompt shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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