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icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

icon for Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?
Klima & Wissenschaft·Klima

Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?

Ja

6% Chance
Polymarket

$343,063 Vol.

Ja

6% Chance
Polymarket

$343,063 Vol.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme quietude underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall in the US before 2027. As of mid-September, zero hurricanes have formed—a record in the satellite era—with only five tropical storms reaching peak winds of 60 mph amid persistent El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air intrusions, and Saharan dust. NOAA maintains its below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, consistent with the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy on record. With the climatological peak passed and no near-term development expected, late-season formation, rapid intensification to 130+ mph sustained winds, and a precise US landfall track remain statistically improbable. An unexpected El Niño collapse or anomalous late-October steering pattern could still allow a major system to develop and impact the coast, though current model consensus offers little support for such shifts.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$343,063
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme quietude underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability against a Category 4 landfall in the US before 2027. As of mid-September, zero hurricanes have formed—a record in the satellite era—with only five tropical storms reaching peak winds of 60 mph amid persistent El Niño-driven wind shear, dry air intrusions, and Saharan dust. NOAA maintains its below-normal outlook of 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, consistent with the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy on record. With the climatological peak passed and no near-term development expected, late-season formation, rapid intensification to 130+ mph sustained winds, and a precise US landfall track remain statistically improbable. An unexpected El Niño collapse or anomalous late-October steering pattern could still allow a major system to develop and impact the coast, though current model consensus offers little support for such shifts.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$343,063
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA landen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird ein Hurrikan der Kategorie 4 vor 2027 in den USA auf Land treffen?" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 6¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 6% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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