Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers (98.9% implied probability), driven by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) March 26 announcement that satellite observations confirm the peak at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—statistically tying 2025 for the record-low in the 48-year record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average of 15.65 million. This positioning reflects persistent downward trends from anthropogenic warming, amplified by thin ice volumes and anomalous warmth in the Barents and Bering Seas during winter growth. A realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision in final NSIDC data processing, though model consensus and daily extent charts since mid-March show no such rebound, with decline now accelerating toward the September minimum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMaximale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Winter?
Maximale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Winter?
14,2-14,4 Mio. km² 99.4%
Unter 14 Mio. km² <1%
14–14,2 Mio. qkm <1%
14,4–14,6 Mio. qkm <1%
$44,982 Vol.
$44,982 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
Unter 14 Mio. km²
<1%
14–14,2 Mio. qkm
<1%
14,2-14,4 Mio. km²
99%
14,4–14,6 Mio. qkm
<1%
14,6–14,8 Mio. km²
<1%
14,8-15 Mio. qkm
<1%
15 Mio.+ km²
<1%
14,2-14,4 Mio. km² 99.4%
Unter 14 Mio. km² <1%
14–14,2 Mio. qkm <1%
14,4–14,6 Mio. qkm <1%
$44,982 Vol.
$44,982 Vol.
1. Apr. 2026
Unter 14 Mio. km²
$2,566 Vol.
<1%
14–14,2 Mio. qkm
$2,416 Vol.
<1%
14,2-14,4 Mio. km²
$18,708 Vol.
99%
14,4–14,6 Mio. qkm
$9,598 Vol.
<1%
14,6–14,8 Mio. km²
$2,720 Vol.
<1%
14,8-15 Mio. qkm
$2,183 Vol.
<1%
15 Mio.+ km²
$7,446 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers (98.9% implied probability), driven by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) March 26 announcement that satellite observations confirm the peak at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—statistically tying 2025 for the record-low in the 48-year record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average of 15.65 million. This positioning reflects persistent downward trends from anthropogenic warming, amplified by thin ice volumes and anomalous warmth in the Barents and Bering Seas during winter growth. A realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision in final NSIDC data processing, though model consensus and daily extent charts since mid-March show no such rebound, with decline now accelerating toward the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$44,982Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers (98.9% implied probability), driven by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) March 26 announcement that satellite observations confirm the peak at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—statistically tying 2025 for the record-low in the 48-year record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average of 15.65 million. This positioning reflects persistent downward trends from anthropogenic warming, amplified by thin ice volumes and anomalous warmth in the Barents and Bering Seas during winter growth. A realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision in final NSIDC data processing, though model consensus and daily extent charts since mid-March show no such rebound, with decline now accelerating toward the September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$44,982Enddatum
1. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors an Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.2-14.4 million square kilometers (98.9% implied probability), driven by the National Snow and Ice Data Center's (NSIDC) March 26 announcement that satellite observations confirm the peak at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15—statistically tying 2025 for the record-low in the 48-year record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average of 15.65 million. This positioning reflects persistent downward trends from anthropogenic warming, amplified by thin ice volumes and anomalous warmth in the Barents and Bering Seas during winter growth. A realistic challenge would require a rare upward revision in final NSIDC data processing, though model consensus and daily extent charts since mid-March show no such rebound, with decline now accelerating toward the September minimum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen