Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models (GFS, ECMWF) projecting Houston's highest temperature on April 6 in the 68-73°F range, driven by a persistent upper-level trough fostering widespread mid-level clouds and scattered showers or thunderstorms from ample Gulf moisture. The 70-71°F outcome leads at 30.5% implied probability due to model consensus on partial cloud breaks allowing modest diurnal heating, while 68-69°F (22.5%) accounts for denser overcast from earlier frontal arrival, and 72-73°F (19.5%) for delayed clearing. Over the past 48 hours, probabilities trended cooler amid confirmed severe weather threats extending through Easter weekend into Monday's second storm wave, capping highs 5-10°F below April norms of 78°F. New model runs expected April 3 evening could shift odds based on observed boundary motion and instability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on April 6?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 6?
70-71°F 26%
68-69°F 23%
72-73°F 18%
66-67°F 11.0%
65°F or below
15%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 26%
68-69°F 23%
72-73°F 18%
66-67°F 11.0%
65°F or below
15%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
23%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 2, 2026, 6:37 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecast models (GFS, ECMWF) projecting Houston's highest temperature on April 6 in the 68-73°F range, driven by a persistent upper-level trough fostering widespread mid-level clouds and scattered showers or thunderstorms from ample Gulf moisture. The 70-71°F outcome leads at 30.5% implied probability due to model consensus on partial cloud breaks allowing modest diurnal heating, while 68-69°F (22.5%) accounts for denser overcast from earlier frontal arrival, and 72-73°F (19.5%) for delayed clearing. Over the past 48 hours, probabilities trended cooler amid confirmed severe weather threats extending through Easter weekend into Monday's second storm wave, capping highs 5-10°F below April norms of 78°F. New model runs expected April 3 evening could shift odds based on observed boundary motion and instability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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