Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecast models for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered across bins from 73°F or below (25.5%) to 92°F or higher (35.5%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF guidance. The National Weather Service's latest extended outlook favors above-normal warmth continuing from recent upper-70s to low-80s highs amid a building upper-level ridge, slightly boosting hotter outcomes, while a potential weak cold front mid-week introduces cloudiness and cooling risks per ensemble spreads. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning, Gulf moisture influx moderating highs via sea breeze effects, and soil temperatures from prior dry conditions aiding rapid warming. Watch for 00z/12z model updates and NWS forecast discussion Sunday for refined consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on April 3?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 3?
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 27%
82-83°F 18%
92°F or higher 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
73°F or below
10%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92°F or higher
18%
86-87°F 32%
84-85°F 27%
82-83°F 18%
92°F or higher 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
73°F or below
$5 Vol.
10%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
17%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
11%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
18%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$12 Vol.
19%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
17%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
17%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecast models for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered across bins from 73°F or below (25.5%) to 92°F or higher (35.5%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF guidance. The National Weather Service's latest extended outlook favors above-normal warmth continuing from recent upper-70s to low-80s highs amid a building upper-level ridge, slightly boosting hotter outcomes, while a potential weak cold front mid-week introduces cloudiness and cooling risks per ensemble spreads. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning, Gulf moisture influx moderating highs via sea breeze effects, and soil temperatures from prior dry conditions aiding rapid warming. Watch for 00z/12z model updates and NWS forecast discussion Sunday for refined consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volumen
$17Enddatum
Apr 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecast models for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered across bins from 73°F or below (25.5%) to 92°F or higher (35.5%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF guidance. The National Weather Service's latest extended outlook favors above-normal warmth continuing from recent upper-70s to low-80s highs amid a building upper-level ridge, slightly boosting hotter outcomes, while a potential weak cold front mid-week introduces cloudiness and cooling risks per ensemble spreads. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning, Gulf moisture influx moderating highs via sea breeze effects, and soil temperatures from prior dry conditions aiding rapid warming. Watch for 00z/12z model updates and NWS forecast discussion Sunday for refined consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$17Enddatum
Apr 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in four-day forecast models for Houston's highest temperature on April 3, with implied probabilities clustered across bins from 73°F or below (25.5%) to 92°F or higher (35.5%), driven by divergent GFS and ECMWF guidance. The National Weather Service's latest extended outlook favors above-normal warmth continuing from recent upper-70s to low-80s highs amid a building upper-level ridge, slightly boosting hotter outcomes, while a potential weak cold front mid-week introduces cloudiness and cooling risks per ensemble spreads. Key differentiators include jet stream positioning, Gulf moisture influx moderating highs via sea breeze effects, and soil temperatures from prior dry conditions aiding rapid warming. Watch for 00z/12z model updates and NWS forecast discussion Sunday for refined consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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