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Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?

Apr. 3

Apr. 4

Apr. 5

Apr. 6

Apr. 3

Apr. 4

Apr. 5

Apr. 6

12°C 29%

13°C 22%

14°C 18%

11°C 18%

Polymarket
NEU

12°C 29%

13°C 22%

14°C 18%

11°C 18%

Polymarket
NEU

7°C or below

$227 Vol.

1%

8°C

$552 Vol.

1%

9°C

$70 Vol.

6%

10°C

$92 Vol.

9%

11°C

$22 Vol.

18%

12°C

$158 Vol.

29%

13°C

$75 Vol.

22%

14°C

$136 Vol.

18%

15°C

$75 Vol.

9%

16°C

$80 Vol.

9%

17°C or higher

$57 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 cluster mean maximum temperatures around 12-14°C at Chopin Airport, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring 12°C (28.5%) and 13°C (22.0%), while reflecting wide member spreads that keep 11°C (18.5%) and 14°C (17.5%) competitive. Key differentiators include uncertainty in upper-level jet stream patterns, which could advect cooler continental air or warmer Atlantic flows, and variable cloud cover limiting solar insolation and daytime heating—potentially capping peaks at 11-12°C under overcast skies or pushing to 13-14°C with clearer conditions. This mirrors early April climatology, with historical highs averaging 12°C, amid inherent short-range forecast divergence; IMGW updates and April 4-5 observations will sharpen consensus before resolution via Wunderground station data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,545
Enddatum
6. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts for Warsaw on April 6 cluster mean maximum temperatures around 12-14°C at Chopin Airport, aligning with trader-implied probabilities favoring 12°C (28.5%) and 13°C (22.0%), while reflecting wide member spreads that keep 11°C (18.5%) and 14°C (17.5%) competitive. Key differentiators include uncertainty in upper-level jet stream patterns, which could advect cooler continental air or warmer Atlantic flows, and variable cloud cover limiting solar insolation and daytime heating—potentially capping peaks at 11-12°C under overcast skies or pushing to 13-14°C with clearer conditions. This mirrors early April climatology, with historical highs averaging 12°C, amid inherent short-range forecast divergence; IMGW updates and April 4-5 observations will sharpen consensus before resolution via Wunderground station data.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,545
Enddatum
6. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 2, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „12°C" mit 28%, gefolgt von „13°C" mit 22%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Apr 2, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 6?" ist „12°C" mit 28%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „13°C" mit 22%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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