Trader sentiment for this year's Arctic sea ice minimum hinges on divergent forecast ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network, with median projections clustering around 4.5-4.8 million square kilometers amid slower-than-average melt rates through early August. Current extent stands at about 5.3 million sq km, buoyed by persistent high pressure and cool northerly winds over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, contrasting last year's rapid collapse to 4.23 million sq km. However, subsurface ocean heat and potential late-season cyclones could accelerate decline below 4 million sq km, as implied by ECMWF outliers, while stable atmospheric patterns favor the 4.4-4.6 million sq km cluster; NSIDC updates next week will be pivotal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMinimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
<4 Mio. km² 25%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 22.1%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 22%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 19.5%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
<4 Mio. km²
25%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
22%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
16%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
21%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
22%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
2%
5 Mio.+ qkm
8%
<4 Mio. km² 25%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 22.1%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 22%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 19.5%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
<4 Mio. km²
25%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
22%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
16%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
21%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
22%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
2%
5 Mio.+ qkm
8%
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for this year's Arctic sea ice minimum hinges on divergent forecast ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network, with median projections clustering around 4.5-4.8 million square kilometers amid slower-than-average melt rates through early August. Current extent stands at about 5.3 million sq km, buoyed by persistent high pressure and cool northerly winds over the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, contrasting last year's rapid collapse to 4.23 million sq km. However, subsurface ocean heat and potential late-season cyclones could accelerate decline below 4 million sq km, as implied by ECMWF outliers, while stable atmospheric patterns favor the 4.4-4.6 million sq km cluster; NSIDC updates next week will be pivotal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen