Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, driven primarily by the 2026 winter maximum tying the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data. This unusually low starting extent, coupled with thin ice from poor winter growth and below-average concentrations across the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Barents seas, heightens vulnerability to melt as spring warming accelerates. Emerging El Niño conditions—61% likely by May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center—further boost atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, historically correlating with reduced summer extent. NSIDC and Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks expected in coming weeks will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMinimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
<4 Mio. km² 53%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 14.7%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 11.1%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 10.9%
$31,548 Vol.
$31,548 Vol.
1. Okt. 2026
<4 Mio. km²
53%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
15%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
11%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
11%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
10%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
1%
5 Mio.+ qkm
1%
<4 Mio. km² 53%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km² 14.7%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 11.1%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 10.9%
$31,548 Vol.
$31,548 Vol.
1. Okt. 2026
<4 Mio. km²
$24,143 Vol.
53%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
$2,509 Vol.
15%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
$802 Vol.
11%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
$950 Vol.
11%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
$1,700 Vol.
10%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
$620 Vol.
1%
5 Mio.+ qkm
$835 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, driven primarily by the 2026 winter maximum tying the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data. This unusually low starting extent, coupled with thin ice from poor winter growth and below-average concentrations across the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Barents seas, heightens vulnerability to melt as spring warming accelerates. Emerging El Niño conditions—61% likely by May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center—further boost atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, historically correlating with reduced summer extent. NSIDC and Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks expected in coming weeks will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$31,548Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, driven primarily by the 2026 winter maximum tying the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data. This unusually low starting extent, coupled with thin ice from poor winter growth and below-average concentrations across the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Barents seas, heightens vulnerability to melt as spring warming accelerates. Emerging El Niño conditions—61% likely by May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center—further boost atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, historically correlating with reduced summer extent. NSIDC and Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks expected in coming weeks will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$31,548Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 52.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, driven primarily by the 2026 winter maximum tying the satellite-era record low at 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data. This unusually low starting extent, coupled with thin ice from poor winter growth and below-average concentrations across the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Barents seas, heightens vulnerability to melt as spring warming accelerates. Emerging El Niño conditions—61% likely by May-July per NOAA Climate Prediction Center—further boost atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic, historically correlating with reduced summer extent. NSIDC and Sea Ice Prediction Network spring outlooks expected in coming weeks will refine model consensus amid inherent forecast uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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