Trader consensus clusters tightly around 7 (30%) and 8 (24%) countries for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and operations to date in Iraq and Syria against militias and ISIS remnants, Yemen targeting Houthi rebels disrupting shipping, Somalia with nearly 50 counterterrorism strikes against al-Shabaab, Nigeria addressing extremist groups, Venezuela via January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, and Iran following late February's coordinated US-Israel strikes on nuclear and missile sites after failed talks. This tally keeps the race close amid debates over counting criteria and baselines from prior years; separation could arise from escalations like threatened actions in Colombia or Cuba, proxy retaliations prompting new responses, or diplomatic de-escalation reducing further targets before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGegen wie viele verschiedene Länder werden die USA 2026 militärisch vorgehen?
Gegen wie viele verschiedene Länder werden die USA 2026 militärisch vorgehen?
7 30.0%
8 24.1%
9 15.3%
10 11.5%
$728,041 Vol.
$728,041 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6
10%
7
30%
8
24%
9
15%
10
12%
11
4%
12
2%
13
1%
14
1%
15+
5%
7 30.0%
8 24.1%
9 15.3%
10 11.5%
$728,041 Vol.
$728,041 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
6
$417,375 Vol.
10%
7
$4,283 Vol.
30%
8
$11,399 Vol.
24%
9
$8,921 Vol.
15%
10
$10,292 Vol.
12%
11
$8,061 Vol.
4%
12
$10,045 Vol.
2%
13
$7,250 Vol.
1%
14
$41,441 Vol.
1%
15+
$49,132 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 7 (30%) and 8 (24%) countries for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and operations to date in Iraq and Syria against militias and ISIS remnants, Yemen targeting Houthi rebels disrupting shipping, Somalia with nearly 50 counterterrorism strikes against al-Shabaab, Nigeria addressing extremist groups, Venezuela via January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, and Iran following late February's coordinated US-Israel strikes on nuclear and missile sites after failed talks. This tally keeps the race close amid debates over counting criteria and baselines from prior years; separation could arise from escalations like threatened actions in Colombia or Cuba, proxy retaliations prompting new responses, or diplomatic de-escalation reducing further targets before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$728,041Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 7 (30%) and 8 (24%) countries for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and operations to date in Iraq and Syria against militias and ISIS remnants, Yemen targeting Houthi rebels disrupting shipping, Somalia with nearly 50 counterterrorism strikes against al-Shabaab, Nigeria addressing extremist groups, Venezuela via January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, and Iran following late February's coordinated US-Israel strikes on nuclear and missile sites after failed talks. This tally keeps the race close amid debates over counting criteria and baselines from prior years; separation could arise from escalations like threatened actions in Colombia or Cuba, proxy retaliations prompting new responses, or diplomatic de-escalation reducing further targets before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$728,041Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 7 (30%) and 8 (24%) countries for US military action in 2026, reflecting confirmed airstrikes and operations to date in Iraq and Syria against militias and ISIS remnants, Yemen targeting Houthi rebels disrupting shipping, Somalia with nearly 50 counterterrorism strikes against al-Shabaab, Nigeria addressing extremist groups, Venezuela via January's Operation Absolute Resolve capturing Nicolás Maduro, and Iran following late February's coordinated US-Israel strikes on nuclear and missile sites after failed talks. This tally keeps the race close amid debates over counting criteria and baselines from prior years; separation could arise from escalations like threatened actions in Colombia or Cuba, proxy retaliations prompting new responses, or diplomatic de-escalation reducing further targets before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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