Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with market-implied odds split 50/50 between 20°C or below and 30°C or higher, diverging sharply from central outcomes amid ensemble forecast spreads. Global models like ECMWF and GFS project highs of 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast conditions, consistent with Sichuan Basin climatology—early April averages 20-22°C amid frequent low-level stratus from topographic trapping and frontal passages. Recent March observations averaged 20-22°C with no major anomalies, but differentiating factors include potential northerly cold outbreaks capping temperatures via cloud-induced cooling versus high-pressure ridging enabling adiabatic warming and clear skies for 30°C+ spikes. China Meteorological Administration updates on March 30-31 could refine steering patterns and resolve trader divergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
30°C or higher 35%
25°C 25%
27°C 25%
23°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
10%
21°C
16%
22°C
16%
23°C
25%
24°C
25%
25°C
25%
26°C
25%
27°C
25%
28°C
18%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
35%
30°C or higher 35%
25°C 25%
27°C 25%
23°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
10%
21°C
$0 Vol.
16%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
25%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$0 Vol.
18%
29°C
$0 Vol.
14%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with market-implied odds split 50/50 between 20°C or below and 30°C or higher, diverging sharply from central outcomes amid ensemble forecast spreads. Global models like ECMWF and GFS project highs of 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast conditions, consistent with Sichuan Basin climatology—early April averages 20-22°C amid frequent low-level stratus from topographic trapping and frontal passages. Recent March observations averaged 20-22°C with no major anomalies, but differentiating factors include potential northerly cold outbreaks capping temperatures via cloud-induced cooling versus high-pressure ridging enabling adiabatic warming and clear skies for 30°C+ spikes. China Meteorological Administration updates on March 30-31 could refine steering patterns and resolve trader divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volumen
$5Enddatum
Apr 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with market-implied odds split 50/50 between 20°C or below and 30°C or higher, diverging sharply from central outcomes amid ensemble forecast spreads. Global models like ECMWF and GFS project highs of 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast conditions, consistent with Sichuan Basin climatology—early April averages 20-22°C amid frequent low-level stratus from topographic trapping and frontal passages. Recent March observations averaged 20-22°C with no major anomalies, but differentiating factors include potential northerly cold outbreaks capping temperatures via cloud-induced cooling versus high-pressure ridging enabling adiabatic warming and clear skies for 30°C+ spikes. China Meteorological Administration updates on March 30-31 could refine steering patterns and resolve trader divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$5Enddatum
Apr 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 3, with market-implied odds split 50/50 between 20°C or below and 30°C or higher, diverging sharply from central outcomes amid ensemble forecast spreads. Global models like ECMWF and GFS project highs of 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast conditions, consistent with Sichuan Basin climatology—early April averages 20-22°C amid frequent low-level stratus from topographic trapping and frontal passages. Recent March observations averaged 20-22°C with no major anomalies, but differentiating factors include potential northerly cold outbreaks capping temperatures via cloud-induced cooling versus high-pressure ridging enabling adiabatic warming and clear skies for 30°C+ spikes. China Meteorological Administration updates on March 30-31 could refine steering patterns and resolve trader divergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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