The US Treasury's April 1 removal of sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez signals a diplomatic thaw following the January 3 special operations strike that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, fostering normalized bilateral relations centered on oil exports and economic engagement. No additional US aerial, drone, or missile strikes have occurred since, amid reports of prisoner releases and cooperation gestures from Caracas. Trader consensus prices another strike by year-end at low implied probabilities, driven by de-escalation priorities and competing geopolitical focuses like Cuba and Iran. Watch for interim leadership stability, potential indictments, and policy forums shaping foreign policy, with no imminent military catalysts scheduled.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$2,527,062 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
31. Dezember
13%
$2,527,062 Vol.
31. Dezember
$485,761 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US Treasury's April 1 removal of sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez signals a diplomatic thaw following the January 3 special operations strike that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, fostering normalized bilateral relations centered on oil exports and economic engagement. No additional US aerial, drone, or missile strikes have occurred since, amid reports of prisoner releases and cooperation gestures from Caracas. Trader consensus prices another strike by year-end at low implied probabilities, driven by de-escalation priorities and competing geopolitical focuses like Cuba and Iran. Watch for interim leadership stability, potential indictments, and policy forums shaping foreign policy, with no imminent military catalysts scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$2,527,062Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The US Treasury's April 1 removal of sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez signals a diplomatic thaw following the January 3 special operations strike that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, fostering normalized bilateral relations centered on oil exports and economic engagement. No additional US aerial, drone, or missile strikes have occurred since, amid reports of prisoner releases and cooperation gestures from Caracas. Trader consensus prices another strike by year-end at low implied probabilities, driven by de-escalation priorities and competing geopolitical focuses like Cuba and Iran. Watch for interim leadership stability, potential indictments, and policy forums shaping foreign policy, with no imminent military catalysts scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,527,062Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 3, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The US Treasury's April 1 removal of sanctions on Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodríguez signals a diplomatic thaw following the January 3 special operations strike that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, fostering normalized bilateral relations centered on oil exports and economic engagement. No additional US aerial, drone, or missile strikes have occurred since, amid reports of prisoner releases and cooperation gestures from Caracas. Trader consensus prices another strike by year-end at low implied probabilities, driven by de-escalation priorities and competing geopolitical focuses like Cuba and Iran. Watch for interim leadership stability, potential indictments, and policy forums shaping foreign policy, with no imminent military catalysts scheduled.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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