Venezuela's crude oil production has surged to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, up from 942,000 bpd in February, propelled by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing PDVSA transactions and earlier February licenses enabling Chevron and others to pursue joint ventures and upstream investments. This trader consensus reflects EIA projections for output rebounding to pre-blockade levels of 1.1-1.2 million bpd by mid-year, potentially adding 300,000-400,000 bpd annually amid easing infrastructure bottlenecks like diluent shortages for heavy grades. Risks include political volatility and OPEC+ dynamics in a forecasted global oversupply of 3.8 million bpd; watch PDVSA deal progress and monthly EIA/OPEC releases for resolution signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$34,022 Vol.
1 Mio.
85%
1,1 Mio.
72%
1,2 Mio.
38%
1,3 Mio.
28%
1,4 Mio.
14%
1,5 Mio.
11%
1,7 Mio.
7%
2 Mio.
5%
$34,022 Vol.
1 Mio.
85%
1,1 Mio.
72%
1,2 Mio.
38%
1,3 Mio.
28%
1,4 Mio.
14%
1,5 Mio.
11%
1,7 Mio.
7%
2 Mio.
5%
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Venezuela's crude oil production has surged to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, up from 942,000 bpd in February, propelled by U.S. sanctions relief on March 18 broadly authorizing PDVSA transactions and earlier February licenses enabling Chevron and others to pursue joint ventures and upstream investments. This trader consensus reflects EIA projections for output rebounding to pre-blockade levels of 1.1-1.2 million bpd by mid-year, potentially adding 300,000-400,000 bpd annually amid easing infrastructure bottlenecks like diluent shortages for heavy grades. Risks include political volatility and OPEC+ dynamics in a forecasted global oversupply of 3.8 million bpd; watch PDVSA deal progress and monthly EIA/OPEC releases for resolution signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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