Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.4% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats and escalating Middle East tensions as of late March. January recorded just 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid carrier rerouting, with CMA CGM and others halting Suez passages after March 1 warnings. Cumulative Q1 volumes remain roughly 60% below pre-2024 norms, rendering 1,000 unattainable with days left. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a last-minute surge or sudden de-escalation, though naval patrols and insurance premiums reinforce caution. Resolution nears March 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1k+ Containerschiffsdurchfahrten des Suezkanals im 1. Quartal 2026?
1k+ Containerschiffsdurchfahrten des Suezkanals im 1. Quartal 2026?
Ja
$49,683 Vol.
$49,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$49,683 Vol.
$49,683 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.4% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats and escalating Middle East tensions as of late March. January recorded just 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid carrier rerouting, with CMA CGM and others halting Suez passages after March 1 warnings. Cumulative Q1 volumes remain roughly 60% below pre-2024 norms, rendering 1,000 unattainable with days left. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a last-minute surge or sudden de-escalation, though naval patrols and insurance premiums reinforce caution. Resolution nears March 31.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$49,683Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.4% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats and escalating Middle East tensions as of late March. January recorded just 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid carrier rerouting, with CMA CGM and others halting Suez passages after March 1 warnings. Cumulative Q1 volumes remain roughly 60% below pre-2024 norms, rendering 1,000 unattainable with days left. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a last-minute surge or sudden de-escalation, though naval patrols and insurance premiums reinforce caution. Resolution nears March 31.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.
Volumen
$49,683Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 25, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain 98.4% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from Houthi threats and escalating Middle East tensions as of late March. January recorded just 150 transits—the weakest in a decade—followed by further declines in February amid carrier rerouting, with CMA CGM and others halting Suez passages after March 1 warnings. Cumulative Q1 volumes remain roughly 60% below pre-2024 norms, rendering 1,000 unattainable with days left. Tail risks include an improbable ceasefire enabling a last-minute surge or sudden de-escalation, though naval patrols and insurance premiums reinforce caution. Resolution nears March 31.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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