Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

Show/hide language selector in navigation

language_selector

Auto-detect and redirect based on browser language

auto_locale_detection

Show BTC 15-minute up/down market in 3rd slot on homepage.

homepage_btc_15m_slot

signup_prompt

Show personalized Picked for You shelf on homepage

picked_for_you

Nidhogg-X1

Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are — not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

Brier Score vs Volume

Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

Expected vs Actual

Frequently Asked Questions

All metrics are calculated from resolved polymarkets, using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.

Methods

How accurate is Polymarket?

Shows how accurate Polymarket odds were at different points before they resolved.

Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows the percentages of all polymarkets that ended up resolving to "Yes" or "No".

Resolution Composition

Activity

Approve token spending for trading

Deploy a smart contract wallet to enable trading

Sign a message to generate your API keys

Enable Trading

See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours

Try selecting a different category or check back later

We'll send you an email every day with what's moving on Polymarket

You'll receive daily updates about the biggest market moves

You're on the list

Get daily updates

Breaking News

Are you sure you want to delete your comment?

Delete comment

GIFs

Comment reported

What will the Fed do at the upcoming meetings?

Overview of the Grammy Awards, their history, and connection to Polymarket predictions.

About the Grammys

Album of the Year is the Grammys' crown jewel, honoring an entire body of work rather than just one song. Presented since 1959, it goes to the artist, producers, songwriters, engineers, and mixers who contributed significantly. It's not about sales or charts; it's pure artistic excellence across genres. Think Taylor Swift's "Midnights," Lauryn Hill's "The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill," or Stevie Wonder's classics; winners often define eras. Albums need at least five tracks and 15 minutes, or 30 minutes total, to qualify. It's a team effort award, celebrating the magic of a cohesive project that pushes music forward. On Polymarket, odds for Album of the Year fluctuate as buzz builds for Grammy nominations like "Debí Tirar Más Fotos" by Bad Bunny and "GNX" by Kendrick Lamar.

Album of the Year

Best New Artist shines on rising stars who've broken through in the eligibility year. Since 1959, it's for performers who've released their first major work and had a cultural impact, not just one hit. Winners like Olivia Rodrigo, Chappell Roan, or Sam Smith often launch massive careers. Eligibility: first-time noms only for this category, and a breakthrough that reshapes the scene. Groups qualify too, like The Beatles once did. It's about fresh talent shaking up music. Polymarket odds on Grammy nominees for Best New Artist category reflect hype and momentum on emerging voices like Olivia Dean and Leon Thomas.

Best New Artist

Real-time predictions and odds for every Grammy category from The World's Largest Prediction Market™

2026 Grammy Awards Predictions

Grammy 2026 Odds

See real-time Grammy Awards predictions for every category. Track live odds for Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and more on the world's largest prediction market.

Grammys predictions & odds (2026) | Polymarket

Record of the Year spotlights a single standout track, rewarding the performance and production magic behind it. Unlike Album of the Year, this one's for one song only, going to the artist, producers, engineers, and mixers who nailed the recording. It's been around since the first Grammys in 1959, focusing on technical brilliance and overall vibe, not lyrics alone. Classics like Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love You," or Michael Jackson's "Beat It" have won, blending artistry with studio wizardry. No sales required, just excellence. It differs from Song of the Year by honoring the full sound, not just composition. Polymarket lets you trade on Grammy nominations and predictions for Record of the Year like "DTMF" by Bad Bunny, "Luther" by Kendrick Lamar & SZA, and "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter. Will a viral hit or emotional ballad edge out the competition?

Record of the Year

Song of the Year is all about the craft of writing: melody, lyrics, and that hook you can't forget. Awarded since 1959, it goes straight to the songwriter(s), not the performer or producers. It's for a single track that captures the year's spirit, regardless of genre. Think Adele's "Hello," Beyoncé's "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)," "Royals" by Lorde, or Ed Sheeran's "Thinking Out Loud." These songs often become timeless anthems. Songs must be new or newly prominent, with both words and music. It stands apart from Record of the Year, which celebrates the recording itself. On Polymarket, track shifting odds on Grammy nominations for Song of the Year like "Golden" by Ejae & Mark Sonnenblick and songwriters Huntrix: Ejae, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami and "Abracadabra" by Lady Gaga, Henry Walter, & Andrew Watt. It's a nod to the unsung heroes behind the hits.

Song of the Year

Trade on Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and more.

Predict Grammy Award Winners

How the tournament works

Putting the "madness" in March

Picking the tournament

About College Basketball Predictions

Why we love the tournament

The women's bracket

Live college basketball predictions & odds

NCAA Tournament

Frequently Asked Questions about the NCAA Tournament

NCAA Tournament Bracket

2026 NCAA Tournament Winner Odds

Overview of the Academy Awards, their history, and connection to Polymarket predictions.

About the Oscars

The 2026 Best Actor race features five performances spanning generational talent and varied genres. Timothée Chalamet delivers a physically committed, fully inhabited turn as an eccentric ping-pong prodigy in Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio brings vulnerability to a troubled artist in Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another, while Michael B. Jordan channels commanding physicality and emotional grit in Ryan Coogler's Sinners. Wagner Moura adds coiled tension to his role in The Secret Agent, and Ethan Hawke brings quiet intensity as a musician in Blue Moon. It's a category where youth and experience collide, with each nominee offering a distinct vision of what a transformative lead performance can look like with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Actor

The 2026 Best Actress category highlights range and emotional fearlessness across five striking performances. Jessie Buckley delivers a viscerally powerful portrayal of maternal grief in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, while Rose Byrne brings sharp comic timing to the darkly funny If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. Emma Stone offers another eccentric, magnetic turn in Yorgos Lanthimos's Bugonia, and Renate Reinsve explores self-reinvention with subtlety in Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value. Kate Hudson channels raw passion in Song Sung Blue. It's a lineup that rewards performers who disappear into their roles, with each nominee bringing a distinctly personal approach to complex, layered characters with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Actress

The Best Director field at the 2026 Oscars showcases a diverse slate of filmmakers working across tones and traditions. Paul Thomas Anderson is nominated for One Battle After Another, bringing his trademark layered character work. Ryan Coogler's Sinners fuses muscular action filmmaking with social commentary, while Josh Safdie brings frenetic energy to Marty Supreme, building on the controlled chaos that defined Uncut Gems. Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value delivers introspective, distinctly Nordic storytelling. Chloé Zhao rounds out the category with Hamnet, adding her naturalistic, empathetic eye to the lineup. It's a category that rewards bold vision — and every nominee here brings a distinct filmmaking voice with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Director

The Best Original Screenplay category at the 2026 Oscars rewards scripts that carve out fresh narrative territory without source material to lean on. Ryan Coogler's Sinners weaves themes of justice and identity into a tightly constructed narrative, while Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme crackles with offbeat wit and restless energy. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value offers a philosophical exploration of intimacy, and Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident probes fate and politics with characteristic moral precision. Robert Kaplow's Blue Moon brings a lyrical sensibility to its portrait of a musician's world. It's a category that spotlights cinema's most inventive voices — and this year's field is especially strong with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Original Screenplay

The Best Picture race at the 2026 Oscars features a genre-spanning lineup of 10 nominees, with Ryan Coogler's Sinners earning a record-breaking 16 nominations overall. Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners, starring Michael B. Jordan, bring distinct visions of character-driven storytelling. Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, with Steven Spielberg among its producers, offers a poetic meditation on grief and creativity, while Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme channels sharp indie energy through Timothée Chalamet's portrayal of an eccentric ping-pong prodigy. Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value, Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein, Yorgos Lanthimos's Bugonia — starring Emma Stone — Joseph Kosinski's F1 starring Brad Pitt, Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent, and Train Dreams each bring auteur-level ambition or crowd-pleasing spectacle to the slate. It's a field that balances spectacle with substance, reflecting the Academy's appetite for both bold personal filmmaking and crowd-reaching narratives with the March 15 ceremony tomorrow.

Best Picture

Real-time predictions and odds for every Oscar category from The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Oscars 2026 Odds

Oscar 2026 Odds

See real-time Academy Awards predictions for every category. Track live odds for Best Picture, Best Director, and more on the world's largest prediction market.

Oscars predictions & odds (2026) | Polymarket

See what people are saying

Trade on Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and more.

Predict Academy Award Winners

Dashboards

What else is in store for the Trump presidency?

What do the first few months in office look like?

Promises & policies

Trump won, now what?

Funds Activated

Earnings Calendar

View election markets for the selected country.

{country} elections

Pick another month or switch back to All.

No elections for this month

Live prediction markets for upcoming elections worldwide on Polymarket.

See live odds and predictions for global elections. Trade on real-time election markets on Polymarket.

Global Election Odds & Predictions ({yearRange})

Embed

Convert your "No" positions to the complementary "Yes" positions (and potentially USDC).

Convert positions

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.

users who convert will receive Yes shares in any outcomes added in the future

Winner-take-all

Your gains for each outcome scenario based on all your positions.

Net Positions

How we calculate fees

Trading fees across all Polymarket categories.

Fees

Buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares depending on your prediction. Odds shift in real time as other traders get in on the action.

1. Pick a Polymarket

1. Explore our Polymarkets

Fund your account with crypto, debit card, or bank transfer—then you're ready to trade.

2. Place a Trade

Sell your 'Yes' or 'No' shares at any time, or wait until the market ends to redeem winning shares for $1 each. Create an account and place your first trade in minutes.

3. Redeem

Leaderboard

Live events where you can predict the words and phrases that will be said.

Mention polymarkets

2026 Governor Race

2026 House Midterm Elections

Key developments in 2026

Learn about the 2026 United States midterm elections, including Senate, House, and gubernatorial races.

2026 Senate Midterm Elections

About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

most pivotal markets

The most competitive and highest-volume races across all chambers. These toss-up and lean races are the battleground contests that will determine control of Congress, with markets reflecting real-time shifts in each candidate's odds based on polling, fundraising, and campaign developments.

Biggest races

2026 Midterms

Midterm Election

2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

Live prediction market odds for every 2026 U.S. midterm election race including Senate, House, gubernatorial, and referendum markets.

Midterms 2026 odds

top issue markets

Alongside candidate races, the 2026 midterm cycle will feature ballot measures and referendums that give voters a direct say on policy issues ranging from abortion rights and marijuana legalization to tax policy and election reform. These markets track the likelihood of passage for the most consequential ballot initiatives across key states, offering real-time odds as campaigns evolve and public opinion shifts.

Referendums

Your session needs to be reset in order to make transactions. Please log out and then back in to reset your session.

Connection Issue

and attest that you are not (i) a U.S. person; (ii) located in the United States, France or other restricted jurisdiction; and (iii) using a VPN or other measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent restrictions. Polymarket reserves the right to put your wallet in close-only mode if you do not comply with these Terms.

Trade on Polymarket

, please certify that you are not a US resident or located in the United States:

To continue to access trading functionality on the site, in an email to

Proof of Residence Required

for more information, including if you think you are receiving this message in error.

Your account has been placed into close only mode due to a potential violation of our Terms of Service. You may close out of your existing positions but not enter into new ones. Reach out to

Trading Halted

Trading is unavailable in the locations below. Use of measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent these restrictions is prohibited.

View-only mode

{count} Orders

Something went wrong

You can close out these resolved positions to realize the loss.

Polymarkets Lost

Claim Failed

This will merge all eligible market positions.

Merge ${amount} in positions

Your winnings are ready. Get back to trading!

I just won ${amount} on @Polymarket!

Join me and put your money where your mouth is:

For multi-outcome events, like “{topMultiOutcomeMarketTitle},” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

For multi-outcome events, you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “{topYesNoMarketTitle}”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes.

For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “{topTrendingMarketTitle},” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “{topMultiOutcomeMarketTitle}” without ever needing to place a trade.

It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes without ever needing to place a trade.

Create a new referral campaign to track sign ups.

Create Campaign

Are you sure you want to delete this campaign? This action cannot be undone.

Delete Campaign

Earn 30% of all fees from direct referrals, and 10% for all indirect referrals. You'll also be eligible for future rewards.

Join Referral Program

Your access to the referral program has been restricted. If you think this is a mistake, please contact support.

Referral Access Restricted

Join Polymarket

Earn cash by referring your friends

Referrals

in lifetime trading volume to create a referral code.

Volume Requirement

Your unused sponsorship balance will be refunded automatically.

Your refund is processed immediately, but only covers the period after the next 12:00 AM UTC. Today's allocation stays committed to the reward pool. Any portion not earned by liquidity providers will be also returned at 12:00 AM UTC.

Error cancelling order

Error cancelling orders

Order cancelled

Orders cancelled

Earn daily USDC rebates by placing limit orders that get filled.

Please review your sponsorship details before confirming.

Review Order

, your funds go directly to market makers.

Pay liquidity providers to trade on a market you want to see more activity on. 

I just put my money where my mouth is on @Polymarket.

Trade against me: