Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet member to depart before 2027, propelled by a widening inspector general probe into allegations of misconduct, including misuse of department resources for personal trips, an alleged affair with a security staffer, and steering grants to political allies. Multiple top aides resigned in early March amid claims of a hostile workplace and travel fraud, with her bodyguard quitting last week, fueling speculation of her imminent exit despite no formal resignation announcement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid persistent Pentagon scrutiny and past controversies, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% following a top aide's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, though Trump has reaffirmed support for her. "None before 2027" lags at 5.5%, reflecting trader bets on near-term volatility from ongoing investigations and internal pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 60%
图尔西·加巴德 10.8%
皮特·海格塞斯 7.5%
2027年前无人 6.0%
$1,216,108 交易量
$1,216,108 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
60%
图尔西·加巴德
11%
皮特·海格塞斯
8%
2027年前无人
6%
布鲁克·罗林斯
2%
斯科特·贝森特
2%
J.D.万斯
2%
帕姆·邦迪
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
1%
霍华德·卢特尼克
1%
苏西·威尔斯
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
1%
斯科特·特纳
1%
克里斯·赖特
1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
1%
马可·鲁比奥
1%
肖恩·达菲
1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
1%
凯利·洛夫勒
<1%
迈克·沃尔茨
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
<1%
道格·柯林斯
<1%
李·泽尔丁
<1%
道格·伯古姆
<1%
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默 60%
图尔西·加巴德 10.8%
皮特·海格塞斯 7.5%
2027年前无人 6.0%
$1,216,108 交易量
$1,216,108 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
洛莉·查韦斯-德雷默
$69,633 交易量
60%
图尔西·加巴德
$693,813 交易量
11%
皮特·海格塞斯
$205,242 交易量
8%
2027年前无人
$52,978 交易量
6%
布鲁克·罗林斯
$6,623 交易量
2%
斯科特·贝森特
$4,568 交易量
2%
J.D.万斯
$7,171 交易量
2%
帕姆·邦迪
$3,967 交易量
1%
罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr.
$3,524 交易量
1%
霍华德·卢特尼克
$25,908 交易量
1%
苏西·威尔斯
$4,682 交易量
1%
琳达·麦克马洪
$9,792 交易量
1%
斯科特·特纳
$5,472 交易量
1%
克里斯·赖特
$3,772 交易量
1%
约翰·拉特克利夫
$3,998 交易量
1%
马可·鲁比奥
$28,964 交易量
1%
肖恩·达菲
$22,493 交易量
1%
拉塞尔·T·沃特
$3,885 交易量
1%
凯利·洛夫勒
$3,705 交易量
<1%
迈克·沃尔茨
$4,019 交易量
<1%
贾米森·格里尔
$4,507 交易量
<1%
道格·柯林斯
$3,228 交易量
<1%
李·泽尔丁
$40,063 交易量
<1%
道格·伯古姆
$5,757 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet member to depart before 2027, propelled by a widening inspector general probe into allegations of misconduct, including misuse of department resources for personal trips, an alleged affair with a security staffer, and steering grants to political allies. Multiple top aides resigned in early March amid claims of a hostile workplace and travel fraud, with her bodyguard quitting last week, fueling speculation of her imminent exit despite no formal resignation announcement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid persistent Pentagon scrutiny and past controversies, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% following a top aide's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, though Trump has reaffirmed support for her. "None before 2027" lags at 5.5%, reflecting trader bets on near-term volatility from ongoing investigations and internal pressures.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$1,216,108结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet member to depart before 2027, propelled by a widening inspector general probe into allegations of misconduct, including misuse of department resources for personal trips, an alleged affair with a security staffer, and steering grants to political allies. Multiple top aides resigned in early March amid claims of a hostile workplace and travel fraud, with her bodyguard quitting last week, fueling speculation of her imminent exit despite no formal resignation announcement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid persistent Pentagon scrutiny and past controversies, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% following a top aide's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, though Trump has reaffirmed support for her. "None before 2027" lags at 5.5%, reflecting trader bets on near-term volatility from ongoing investigations and internal pressures.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$1,216,108结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet member to depart before 2027, propelled by a widening inspector general probe into allegations of misconduct, including misuse of department resources for personal trips, an alleged affair with a security staffer, and steering grants to political allies. Multiple top aides resigned in early March amid claims of a hostile workplace and travel fraud, with her bodyguard quitting last week, fueling speculation of her imminent exit despite no formal resignation announcement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid persistent Pentagon scrutiny and past controversies, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% following a top aide's March 17 resignation over Iran policy, though Trump has reaffirmed support for her. "None before 2027" lags at 5.5%, reflecting trader bets on near-term volatility from ongoing investigations and internal pressures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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