Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close below $6,400 at 47% implied probability, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid surging oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran conflict developments that erased earlier monthly gains. Year-to-date losses now exceed 7%, with heightened VIX volatility signaling risk-off sentiment as energy costs threaten corporate margins and economic growth. The closely contested odds, with $6,400-$6,500 at 15%, hinge on potential de-escalation news or stabilizing crude before quarter-end, though persistent geopolitical uncertainty sustains downside bias into the final trading days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于6,500-6,600美元 16%
6,400-6,500美元 10%
7,000-7,100 4.9%
6,600-6,700 4%
$10,907 交易量
$10,907 交易量
低于6,400点
46%
6,400-6,500美元
14%
6,500-6,600美元
13%
6,600-6,700
9%
6,700-6,800
2%
6,800-6,900美元
2%
6,900-7,000美元
3%
7,000-7,100
5%
7,100-7,200美元
1%
7,200-7,300
<1%
超过7,300美元
1%
6,500-6,600美元 16%
6,400-6,500美元 10%
7,000-7,100 4.9%
6,600-6,700 4%
$10,907 交易量
$10,907 交易量
低于6,400点
46%
6,400-6,500美元
14%
6,500-6,600美元
13%
6,600-6,700
9%
6,700-6,800
2%
6,800-6,900美元
2%
6,900-7,000美元
3%
7,000-7,100
5%
7,100-7,200美元
1%
7,200-7,300
<1%
超过7,300美元
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间: Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the S&P 500 March 31 close below $6,400 at 47% implied probability, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid surging oil prices and escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran conflict developments that erased earlier monthly gains. Year-to-date losses now exceed 7%, with heightened VIX volatility signaling risk-off sentiment as energy costs threaten corporate margins and economic growth. The closely contested odds, with $6,400-$6,500 at 15%, hinge on potential de-escalation news or stabilizing crude before quarter-end, though persistent geopolitical uncertainty sustains downside bias into the final trading days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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