Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于6,500-6,600美元 33%
低于6,400点 29%
6,400-6,500美元 24%
6,700-6,800 16%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
低于6,400点
24%
6,400-6,500美元
24%
6,500-6,600美元
27%
6,600-6,700
22%
6,700-6,800
13%
6,800-6,900美元
4%
6,900-7,000美元
2%
7,000-7,100
1%
7,100-7,200美元
1%
7,200-7,300
<1%
超过7,300美元
1%
6,500-6,600美元 33%
低于6,400点 29%
6,400-6,500美元 24%
6,700-6,800 16%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
低于6,400点
$928 交易量
24%
6,400-6,500美元
$130 交易量
24%
6,500-6,600美元
$943 交易量
27%
6,600-6,700
$57 交易量
22%
6,700-6,800
$580 交易量
13%
6,800-6,900美元
$1,103 交易量
4%
6,900-7,000美元
$0 交易量
2%
7,000-7,100
$37 交易量
1%
7,100-7,200美元
$0 交易量
1%
7,200-7,300
$0 交易量
<1%
超过7,300美元
$206 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
交易量
$3,984结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$3,984结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin race for the S&P 500 March close, with <$6,400 (26%), $6,500-$6,600 (25.5%), and $6,400-$6,500 (24%) dominating implied probabilities amid heightened uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. The index retreated 2% last week from 6,600 peaks after February CPI printed at 3.2% year-over-year—hotter than the 3.0% consensus—dampening March rate cut odds to 25% per fed funds futures, while robust nonfarm payrolls (275,000 added) signaled labor market resilience curbing downside risks. Megacap tech earnings beats provided counterbalance, but sticky inflation dynamics and the March 19 FOMC hold differentiate the closely contested bins, with traders eyeing Friday's preliminary Q1 GDP for final swings before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题