Polymarket's trader consensus prices a tight contest between $7,000-$7,500 (30.5% implied probability) and $6,500-$7,000 (27.0%) for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, mirroring the index's recent surge to record highs above 7,385 amid robust Q1 earnings from tech giants and AI-driven optimism. Last week's 1.5% gain to 7,365 reflected resilient risk appetite despite Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and capping intraday peaks on May 7. Wall Street targets average 7,500-7,800, fueled by 12-22% EPS growth forecasts, but steady Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and futures-implied mild hikes temper enthusiasm amid sticky inflation. Differentiators include Q2 earnings, June FOMC, and CPI reports—strong data favors upside bins, while geopolitical escalation or labor softening swings lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7,000-7,500 29%
6,500-7,000美元 26%
6,000-6,500美元 16%
低于6,000 14%
$24,656 交易量
$24,656 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
18%
6,000-6,500美元
16%
6,500-7,000美元
26%
7,000-7,500
29%
7,500-8,000美元
14%
高于8,000美元
12%
7,000-7,500 29%
6,500-7,000美元 26%
6,000-6,500美元 16%
低于6,000 14%
$24,656 交易量
$24,656 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$15,484 交易量
18%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,429 交易量
16%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,328 交易量
26%
7,000-7,500
$1,114 交易量
29%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,009 交易量
14%
高于8,000美元
$2,293 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a tight contest between $7,000-$7,500 (30.5% implied probability) and $6,500-$7,000 (27.0%) for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, mirroring the index's recent surge to record highs above 7,385 amid robust Q1 earnings from tech giants and AI-driven optimism. Last week's 1.5% gain to 7,365 reflected resilient risk appetite despite Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and capping intraday peaks on May 7. Wall Street targets average 7,500-7,800, fueled by 12-22% EPS growth forecasts, but steady Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and futures-implied mild hikes temper enthusiasm amid sticky inflation. Differentiators include Q2 earnings, June FOMC, and CPI reports—strong data favors upside bins, while geopolitical escalation or labor softening swings lower.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$24,656结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a tight contest between $7,000-$7,500 (30.5% implied probability) and $6,500-$7,000 (27.0%) for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, mirroring the index's recent surge to record highs above 7,385 amid robust Q1 earnings from tech giants and AI-driven optimism. Last week's 1.5% gain to 7,365 reflected resilient risk appetite despite Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and capping intraday peaks on May 7. Wall Street targets average 7,500-7,800, fueled by 12-22% EPS growth forecasts, but steady Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and futures-implied mild hikes temper enthusiasm amid sticky inflation. Differentiators include Q2 earnings, June FOMC, and CPI reports—strong data favors upside bins, while geopolitical escalation or labor softening swings lower.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$24,656结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket's trader consensus prices a tight contest between $7,000-$7,500 (30.5% implied probability) and $6,500-$7,000 (27.0%) for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, mirroring the index's recent surge to record highs above 7,385 amid robust Q1 earnings from tech giants and AI-driven optimism. Last week's 1.5% gain to 7,365 reflected resilient risk appetite despite Middle East tensions lifting oil prices and capping intraday peaks on May 7. Wall Street targets average 7,500-7,800, fueled by 12-22% EPS growth forecasts, but steady Fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% and futures-implied mild hikes temper enthusiasm amid sticky inflation. Differentiators include Q2 earnings, June FOMC, and CPI reports—strong data favors upside bins, while geopolitical escalation or labor softening swings lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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