Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7,000-7,500 29%
6,500-7,000美元 23%
6,000-6,500美元 16%
低于6,000 14%
$24,656 交易量
$24,656 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
17%
6,000-6,500美元
16%
6,500-7,000美元
23%
7,000-7,500
28%
7,500-8,000美元
14%
高于8,000美元
12%
7,000-7,500 29%
6,500-7,000美元 23%
6,000-6,500美元 16%
低于6,000 14%
$24,656 交易量
$24,656 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$15,484 交易量
17%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,429 交易量
16%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,328 交易量
23%
7,000-7,500
$1,114 交易量
28%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,009 交易量
14%
高于8,000美元
$2,293 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$24,656结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$24,656结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders assign 29% implied probability to an S&P 500 year-end 2026 close in the $6,500-$7,000 range, narrowly ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 27%, capturing uncertainty over moderate index appreciation from current levels near 7,350 amid resilient 15% calendar-year earnings-per-share growth forecasts. Strong Q1 earnings beats and broadening sector leadership bolster upside potential, yet persistent inflation—fueled by Middle East tensions and surging energy prices—has solidified Fed funds rate expectations at 3.5%-3.75% with no cuts anticipated, tempering valuations. Key differentiators include upcoming CPI releases, June FOMC signals, and Q2 earnings; geopolitical de-escalation could favor higher bins, while hotter data risks downside.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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