The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $7,000-$7,500 bucket leading at 24% followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 21%, reflect substantial uncertainty in the S&P 500's 2026 trajectory driven by divergent views on sustained earnings growth, monetary policy easing, and inflation moderation. Traders are pricing in a range of outcomes around current levels near 6,000 amid mixed signals from corporate revenue trends and labor market data, with key swing factors including upcoming FOMC decisions, quarterly GDP releases, and potential shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. The lower-probability tails below 6,500 or above 8,000 highlight the impact of unexpected macroeconomic developments on year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7,000-7,500 24%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
高于8,000美元 17%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$28,058 交易量
$28,058 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
8%
6,000-6,500美元
13%
6,500-7,000美元
12%
7,000-7,500
24%
7,500-8,000美元
21%
高于8,000美元
17%
7,000-7,500 24%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
高于8,000美元 17%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$28,058 交易量
$28,058 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$16,273 交易量
8%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,641 交易量
13%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,943 交易量
12%
7,000-7,500
$1,311 交易量
24%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,945 交易量
21%
高于8,000美元
$2,946 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $7,000-$7,500 bucket leading at 24% followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 21%, reflect substantial uncertainty in the S&P 500's 2026 trajectory driven by divergent views on sustained earnings growth, monetary policy easing, and inflation moderation. Traders are pricing in a range of outcomes around current levels near 6,000 amid mixed signals from corporate revenue trends and labor market data, with key swing factors including upcoming FOMC decisions, quarterly GDP releases, and potential shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. The lower-probability tails below 6,500 or above 8,000 highlight the impact of unexpected macroeconomic developments on year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$28,058结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $7,000-$7,500 bucket leading at 24% followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 21%, reflect substantial uncertainty in the S&P 500's 2026 trajectory driven by divergent views on sustained earnings growth, monetary policy easing, and inflation moderation. Traders are pricing in a range of outcomes around current levels near 6,000 amid mixed signals from corporate revenue trends and labor market data, with key swing factors including upcoming FOMC decisions, quarterly GDP releases, and potential shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. The lower-probability tails below 6,500 or above 8,000 highlight the impact of unexpected macroeconomic developments on year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$28,058结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThe closely matched Polymarket odds, with the $7,000-$7,500 bucket leading at 24% followed by $7,500-$8,000 at 21%, reflect substantial uncertainty in the S&P 500's 2026 trajectory driven by divergent views on sustained earnings growth, monetary policy easing, and inflation moderation. Traders are pricing in a range of outcomes around current levels near 6,000 amid mixed signals from corporate revenue trends and labor market data, with key swing factors including upcoming FOMC decisions, quarterly GDP releases, and potential shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. The lower-probability tails below 6,500 or above 8,000 highlight the impact of unexpected macroeconomic developments on year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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