Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution after a 5-week index skid ending early April that pulled SPX to 6,583 from January peaks near 6,929, amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and the Fed's decision to hold fed funds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with just one cut projected for the year. Elevated forward P/E multiples around 21.5x, despite 14% earnings growth consensus for 2026 (EPS ~$309), amplify valuation concerns, while Middle East tensions spur oil spikes curbing risk appetite. Wall Street targets average ~7,300 (JPMorgan 7,200, Goldman Sachs 7,600), but trader capital favors limited upside; watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于6,000 43%
6,500-7,000美元 21%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$16,334 交易量
$16,334 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
43%
6,000-6,500美元
13%
6,500-7,000美元
21%
7,000-7,500
18%
7,500-8,000美元
6%
高于8,000美元
5%
低于6,000 43%
6,500-7,000美元 21%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,000-6,500美元 13%
$16,334 交易量
$16,334 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$10,248 交易量
43%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,119 交易量
13%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,302 交易量
21%
7,000-7,500
$704 交易量
18%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,438 交易量
6%
高于8,000美元
$1,523 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution after a 5-week index skid ending early April that pulled SPX to 6,583 from January peaks near 6,929, amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and the Fed's decision to hold fed funds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with just one cut projected for the year. Elevated forward P/E multiples around 21.5x, despite 14% earnings growth consensus for 2026 (EPS ~$309), amplify valuation concerns, while Middle East tensions spur oil spikes curbing risk appetite. Wall Street targets average ~7,300 (JPMorgan 7,200, Goldman Sachs 7,600), but trader capital favors limited upside; watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$16,334结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution after a 5-week index skid ending early April that pulled SPX to 6,583 from January peaks near 6,929, amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and the Fed's decision to hold fed funds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with just one cut projected for the year. Elevated forward P/E multiples around 21.5x, despite 14% earnings growth consensus for 2026 (EPS ~$309), amplify valuation concerns, while Middle East tensions spur oil spikes curbing risk appetite. Wall Street targets average ~7,300 (JPMorgan 7,200, Goldman Sachs 7,600), but trader capital favors limited upside; watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$16,334结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders assign a 48% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution after a 5-week index skid ending early April that pulled SPX to 6,583 from January peaks near 6,929, amid sticky February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and the Fed's decision to hold fed funds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with just one cut projected for the year. Elevated forward P/E multiples around 21.5x, despite 14% earnings growth consensus for 2026 (EPS ~$309), amplify valuation concerns, while Middle East tensions spur oil spikes curbing risk appetite. Wall Street targets average ~7,300 (JPMorgan 7,200, Goldman Sachs 7,600), but trader capital favors limited upside; watch March CPI on April 10 and April 28-29 FOMC for catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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