Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid the index's recent 6% pullback from its January 2026 peak near 7,000 to current levels around 6,600, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This tempers expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.7% quarterly annualized, heightening recession risks despite Wall Street year-end targets averaging 7,200-7,600 on 17% earnings growth forecasts. The 20% odds on $7,000-$7,500 capture moderate upside potential from AI-driven productivity, ahead of Q1 earnings and the May FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于6,000 40%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 19%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$17,161 交易量
$17,161 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
40%
6,000-6,500美元
15%
6,500-7,000美元
14%
7,000-7,500
20%
7,500-8,000美元
12%
高于8,000美元
6%
低于6,000 40%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 19%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$17,161 交易量
$17,161 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$10,941 交易量
40%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,145 交易量
15%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,327 交易量
14%
7,000-7,500
$723 交易量
20%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,467 交易量
12%
高于8,000美元
$1,558 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid the index's recent 6% pullback from its January 2026 peak near 7,000 to current levels around 6,600, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This tempers expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.7% quarterly annualized, heightening recession risks despite Wall Street year-end targets averaging 7,200-7,600 on 17% earnings growth forecasts. The 20% odds on $7,000-$7,500 capture moderate upside potential from AI-driven productivity, ahead of Q1 earnings and the May FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$17,161结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid the index's recent 6% pullback from its January 2026 peak near 7,000 to current levels around 6,600, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This tempers expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.7% quarterly annualized, heightening recession risks despite Wall Street year-end targets averaging 7,200-7,600 on 17% earnings growth forecasts. The 20% odds on $7,000-$7,500 capture moderate upside potential from AI-driven productivity, ahead of Q1 earnings and the May FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$17,161结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 40% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting caution amid the index's recent 6% pullback from its January 2026 peak near 7,000 to current levels around 6,600, driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year. This tempers expectations for aggressive rate cuts, with Q4 2025 GDP growth slowing to 0.7% quarterly annualized, heightening recession risks despite Wall Street year-end targets averaging 7,200-7,600 on 17% earnings growth forecasts. The 20% odds on $7,000-$7,500 capture moderate upside potential from AI-driven productivity, ahead of Q1 earnings and the May FOMC meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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