Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened caution amid the index's 4.6% year-to-date decline to around 6,583 as of April 2 and its position below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late February and mid-March, respectively. This bearish skew persists despite Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600 forecast on 12% earnings-per-share growth and upward revisions to 17% consensus EPS expansion, pressured by the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid oil shocks complicating further cuts. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting could shift sentiment if growth surprises or policy softens.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于6,000 41%
6,500-7,000美元 20%
7,000-7,500 19%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,354 交易量
$16,354 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
41%
6,000-6,500美元
17%
6,500-7,000美元
20%
7,000-7,500
19%
7,500-8,000美元
6%
高于8,000美元
5%
低于6,000 41%
6,500-7,000美元 20%
7,000-7,500 19%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,354 交易量
$16,354 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$10,248 交易量
41%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,119 交易量
17%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,322 交易量
20%
7,000-7,500
$704 交易量
19%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,438 交易量
6%
高于8,000美元
$1,523 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened caution amid the index's 4.6% year-to-date decline to around 6,583 as of April 2 and its position below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late February and mid-March, respectively. This bearish skew persists despite Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600 forecast on 12% earnings-per-share growth and upward revisions to 17% consensus EPS expansion, pressured by the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid oil shocks complicating further cuts. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting could shift sentiment if growth surprises or policy softens.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$16,354结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened caution amid the index's 4.6% year-to-date decline to around 6,583 as of April 2 and its position below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late February and mid-March, respectively. This bearish skew persists despite Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600 forecast on 12% earnings-per-share growth and upward revisions to 17% consensus EPS expansion, pressured by the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid oil shocks complicating further cuts. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting could shift sentiment if growth surprises or policy softens.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$16,354结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened caution amid the index's 4.6% year-to-date decline to around 6,583 as of April 2 and its position below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late February and mid-March, respectively. This bearish skew persists despite Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 7,600 forecast on 12% earnings-per-share growth and upward revisions to 17% consensus EPS expansion, pressured by the Federal Reserve's March decision to hold fed funds steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid oil shocks complicating further cuts. Upcoming Q1 earnings and May FOMC meeting could shift sentiment if growth surprises or policy softens.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题