Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened recession risks amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting oil shock that has spiked inflation fears. The index, at 6,583 on April 2 after a 4.6% Q1 decline from its January peak near 7,000, trades below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, pressured by the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate and futures implying limited cuts through year-end. Resilient March unemployment at 4.3% offers some offset, but elevated Treasury yields and slowing GDP momentum underpin the bearish skew, with $7,000-$7,500 next at 19.5%. Key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and bank earnings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于6,000 42%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 18%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,374 交易量
$16,374 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
42%
6,000-6,500美元
17%
6,500-7,000美元
18%
7,000-7,500
20%
7,500-8,000美元
6%
高于8,000美元
6%
低于6,000 42%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 18%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,374 交易量
$16,374 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$10,266 交易量
42%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,119 交易量
17%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,322 交易量
18%
7,000-7,500
$704 交易量
20%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,438 交易量
6%
高于8,000美元
$1,525 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened recession risks amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting oil shock that has spiked inflation fears. The index, at 6,583 on April 2 after a 4.6% Q1 decline from its January peak near 7,000, trades below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, pressured by the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate and futures implying limited cuts through year-end. Resilient March unemployment at 4.3% offers some offset, but elevated Treasury yields and slowing GDP momentum underpin the bearish skew, with $7,000-$7,500 next at 19.5%. Key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and bank earnings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$16,374结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened recession risks amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting oil shock that has spiked inflation fears. The index, at 6,583 on April 2 after a 4.6% Q1 decline from its January peak near 7,000, trades below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, pressured by the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate and futures implying limited cuts through year-end. Resilient March unemployment at 4.3% offers some offset, but elevated Treasury yields and slowing GDP momentum underpin the bearish skew, with $7,000-$7,500 next at 19.5%. Key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and bank earnings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$16,374结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting heightened recession risks amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and resulting oil shock that has spiked inflation fears. The index, at 6,583 on April 2 after a 4.6% Q1 decline from its January peak near 7,000, trades below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, pressured by the Federal Reserve's steady 3.5%-3.75% fed funds rate and futures implying limited cuts through year-end. Resilient March unemployment at 4.3% offers some offset, but elevated Treasury yields and slowing GDP momentum underpin the bearish skew, with $7,000-$7,500 next at 19.5%. Key catalysts include April 10 CPI data and bank earnings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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