Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability that Tesla (TSLA) shares stay below $390 through April 2026, reflecting caution amid soft Q1 vehicle delivery expectations of 365,000 units—up modestly year-over-year but signaling persistent demand weakness versus prior peaks. With shares trading around $362 after rejecting $490 highs twice this quarter, concerns over halted cheaper Model 3 launch in China and halved 2026 delivery growth forecasts to 3.8% weigh on sentiment, despite robust energy storage deployments at 14.4 GWh and FSD mileage surpassing 9 billion. Key catalysts include early-April Q1 deliveries and late-April earnings (est. April 21–28), where surprises in autonomy updates, Cybercab production, or Optimus unveil could spur volatility toward analyst average targets near $400.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
May 1, 2026
↑ $555
9%
↑ $518
9%
↑ $488
8%
↑ $458
20%
↑ $435
33%
↑ $420
39%
↑ 405美元
50%
↓ $390
99%
↓ $375
95%
↓ $360
93%
↓ $338
59%
↓ $315
59%
↓ $285
21%
↓ $248
9%
$8,036 交易量
↑ $555
$0 交易量
9%
↑ $518
$127 交易量
9%
↑ $488
$0 交易量
8%
↑ $458
$54 交易量
20%
↑ $435
$21 交易量
33%
↑ $420
$74 交易量
39%
↑ 405美元
$192 交易量
50%
↓ $390
$4,312 交易量
99%
↓ $375
$2,578 交易量
95%
↓ $360
$319 交易量
93%
↓ $338
$10 交易量
59%
↓ $315
$0 交易量
59%
↓ $285
$350 交易量
21%
↓ $248
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability that Tesla (TSLA) shares stay below $390 through April 2026, reflecting caution amid soft Q1 vehicle delivery expectations of 365,000 units—up modestly year-over-year but signaling persistent demand weakness versus prior peaks. With shares trading around $362 after rejecting $490 highs twice this quarter, concerns over halted cheaper Model 3 launch in China and halved 2026 delivery growth forecasts to 3.8% weigh on sentiment, despite robust energy storage deployments at 14.4 GWh and FSD mileage surpassing 9 billion. Key catalysts include early-April Q1 deliveries and late-April earnings (est. April 21–28), where surprises in autonomy updates, Cybercab production, or Optimus unveil could spur volatility toward analyst average targets near $400.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
交易量
$8,036结束日期
May 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Low" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability that Tesla (TSLA) shares stay below $390 through April 2026, reflecting caution amid soft Q1 vehicle delivery expectations of 365,000 units—up modestly year-over-year but signaling persistent demand weakness versus prior peaks. With shares trading around $362 after rejecting $490 highs twice this quarter, concerns over halted cheaper Model 3 launch in China and halved 2026 delivery growth forecasts to 3.8% weigh on sentiment, despite robust energy storage deployments at 14.4 GWh and FSD mileage surpassing 9 billion. Key catalysts include early-April Q1 deliveries and late-April earnings (est. April 21–28), where surprises in autonomy updates, Cybercab production, or Optimus unveil could spur volatility toward analyst average targets near $400.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026 (ET), any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Only prices achieved during regular trading hours (ET) will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/, with the chart settings on "1m" for candle intervals.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
交易量
$8,036结束日期
May 1, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98% implied probability that Tesla (TSLA) shares stay below $390 through April 2026, reflecting caution amid soft Q1 vehicle delivery expectations of 365,000 units—up modestly year-over-year but signaling persistent demand weakness versus prior peaks. With shares trading around $362 after rejecting $490 highs twice this quarter, concerns over halted cheaper Model 3 launch in China and halved 2026 delivery growth forecasts to 3.8% weigh on sentiment, despite robust energy storage deployments at 14.4 GWh and FSD mileage surpassing 9 billion. Key catalysts include early-April Q1 deliveries and late-April earnings (est. April 21–28), where surprises in autonomy updates, Cybercab production, or Optimus unveil could spur volatility toward analyst average targets near $400.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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