Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Amazon (AMZN) March 2026 price market leans toward $200–$250 bins at around 60% implied probability, anchored by AWS revenue growth hitting 19% YoY in Q2 amid surging AI demand, offsetting $20B+ annual capex. Current shares trade near $186 post-earnings anticipation, with analyst consensus 12-month targets at $212 reflecting margin expansion to 10%+ operating levels. Key catalysts include Q3 results on Oct. 31—watch for holiday guidance and capex trajectory—and Fed rate path through 2025, as lower rates could boost multiples from 35x forward earnings. Historical precedent shows AMZN doubling every 3–4 years in bull cycles, though consumer slowdown risks cap upside.