Market icon
政治·SCOTUS

2026年最高法院的空缺？

Market icon
政治·SCOTUS

2026年最高法院的空缺？

是

55% chance
Polymarket
NEW

是

55% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a slight edge for a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 55%, reflecting the advanced ages of justices Clarence Thomas (76), Samuel Alito (75), and Chief Justice John Roberts (69), alongside recent health signals. Thomas missed oral arguments in early October 2024 due to flu—his first absence since the 1990s—while Justice Sonia Sotomayor (70), who manages diabetes, has canceled public appearances. The tightly contested presidential election on November 5 could reshape Senate confirmation prospects after January's inauguration, historically prompting strategic retirements during favorable windows for nominees. No official announcements have surfaced, leaving uncertainty as key upcoming events like potential post-election announcements loom.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年最高法院的空缺？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年最高法院出现空缺？"，概率为 55%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 55¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 55%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"2026年最高法院的空缺？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 16, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"2026年最高法院的空缺？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年最高法院的空缺？"的当前领先者是"2026年最高法院出现空缺？"，概率为 55%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 55%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年最高法院的空缺？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。