Trader consensus implies a 55% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven by mid-February rumors that Justice Samuel Alito may retire upon completion of the 2025-2026 term in late June, marking his 20-year service milestone and coinciding with his forthcoming book release. Though unconfirmed by official statements, Alito's age of 76, alongside Justice Clarence Thomas at 78, heightens speculation amid a Republican Senate poised for swift confirmation hearings under President Trump. No health issues or announcements have emerged since, leaving the closely contested odds sensitive to end-of-term developments or unexpected events like resignations before December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus implies a 55% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven by mid-February rumors that Justice Samuel Alito may retire upon completion of the 2025-2026 term in late June, marking his 20-year service milestone and coinciding with his forthcoming book release. Though unconfirmed by official statements, Alito's age of 76, alongside Justice Clarence Thomas at 78, heightens speculation amid a Republican Senate poised for swift confirmation hearings under President Trump. No health issues or announcements have emerged since, leaving the closely contested odds sensitive to end-of-term developments or unexpected events like resignations before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
交易量
$3,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus implies a 55% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven by mid-February rumors that Justice Samuel Alito may retire upon completion of the 2025-2026 term in late June, marking his 20-year service milestone and coinciding with his forthcoming book release. Though unconfirmed by official statements, Alito's age of 76, alongside Justice Clarence Thomas at 78, heightens speculation amid a Republican Senate poised for swift confirmation hearings under President Trump. No health issues or announcements have emerged since, leaving the closely contested odds sensitive to end-of-term developments or unexpected events like resignations before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,064结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 55% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, driven by mid-February rumors that Justice Samuel Alito may retire upon completion of the 2025-2026 term in late June, marking his 20-year service milestone and coinciding with his forthcoming book release. Though unconfirmed by official statements, Alito's age of 76, alongside Justice Clarence Thomas at 78, heightens speculation amid a Republican Senate poised for swift confirmation hearings under President Trump. No health issues or announcements have emerged since, leaving the closely contested odds sensitive to end-of-term developments or unexpected events like resignations before December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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