Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations with the index's forward P/E ratio near 22x despite a post-election rally pushing shares above 6,000 to 6,045 as of December 9. November CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, bolstering expectations for 25 basis point Fed funds rate cuts at the December 18 FOMC meeting and into 2026 per the latest dot plot, yet traders weigh slowing earnings growth projections—consensus at 11% for 2026 versus 15% in 2025—against risks from potential tariffs and fiscal expansion. Buckets around $6,500–$7,500 capture 39% combined odds, aligning with Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 6,700 for 2025 extended forward, with key catalysts including Q4 earnings and January 2026 economic data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于6,000 36%
6,500-7,000美元 19%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$11,179 交易量
$11,179 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
低于6,000
36%
6,000-6,500美元
15%
6,500-7,000美元
19%
7,000-7,500
18%
7,500-8,000美元
9%
高于8,000美元
11%
低于6,000 36%
6,500-7,000美元 19%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
$11,179 交易量
$11,179 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
低于6,000
$6,481 交易量
36%
6,000-6,500美元
$854 交易量
15%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,137 交易量
19%
7,000-7,500
$564 交易量
18%
7,500-8,000美元
$985 交易量
9%
高于8,000美元
$1,158 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations with the index's forward P/E ratio near 22x despite a post-election rally pushing shares above 6,000 to 6,045 as of December 9. November CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, bolstering expectations for 25 basis point Fed funds rate cuts at the December 18 FOMC meeting and into 2026 per the latest dot plot, yet traders weigh slowing earnings growth projections—consensus at 11% for 2026 versus 15% in 2025—against risks from potential tariffs and fiscal expansion. Buckets around $6,500–$7,500 capture 39% combined odds, aligning with Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 6,700 for 2025 extended forward, with key catalysts including Q4 earnings and January 2026 economic data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$11,179结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations with the index's forward P/E ratio near 22x despite a post-election rally pushing shares above 6,000 to 6,045 as of December 9. November CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, bolstering expectations for 25 basis point Fed funds rate cuts at the December 18 FOMC meeting and into 2026 per the latest dot plot, yet traders weigh slowing earnings growth projections—consensus at 11% for 2026 versus 15% in 2025—against risks from potential tariffs and fiscal expansion. Buckets around $6,500–$7,500 capture 39% combined odds, aligning with Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 6,700 for 2025 extended forward, with key catalysts including Q4 earnings and January 2026 economic data.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$11,179结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by end-2026, reflecting caution amid record-high valuations with the index's forward P/E ratio near 22x despite a post-election rally pushing shares above 6,000 to 6,045 as of December 9. November CPI inflation eased to 2.7% year-over-year, bolstering expectations for 25 basis point Fed funds rate cuts at the December 18 FOMC meeting and into 2026 per the latest dot plot, yet traders weigh slowing earnings growth projections—consensus at 11% for 2026 versus 15% in 2025—against risks from potential tariffs and fiscal expansion. Buckets around $6,500–$7,500 capture 39% combined odds, aligning with Wall Street targets like Goldman Sachs' 6,700 for 2025 extended forward, with key catalysts including Q4 earnings and January 2026 economic data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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