Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96% implied probability of sub-zero S&P 500 returns for Q1 2025, reflecting bearish consensus driven by surging 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6%—their highest since May—amid hotter-than-expected December CPI inflation at 2.9% year-over-year and persistent wage pressures in the January jobs report adding 256,000 nonfarm payrolls. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including recent FOMC minutes signaling only two rate cuts in 2025 versus prior dot plot expectations, have eroded rate-cut hopes, pressuring high-valuation tech megacaps that dominate the index. Policy uncertainty from incoming Trump administration tariff proposals further fuels risk-off sentiment. Upside risks include softer February inflation data or accelerated Fed easing, potentially stabilizing equities near current 5,800 levels ahead of March quarter-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于小于0% 97.0%
2-3% 1.0%
0-2% <1%
4-5% <1%
$298,965 交易量
$298,965 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
97%
0-2%
1%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
1%
5-6%
<1%
6-8%
1%
8-10%
<1%
10%以上
<1%
小于0% 97.0%
2-3% 1.0%
0-2% <1%
4-5% <1%
$298,965 交易量
$298,965 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
$37,217 交易量
97%
0-2%
$11,623 交易量
1%
2-3%
$16,127 交易量
1%
3-4%
$39,970 交易量
1%
4-5%
$51,649 交易量
1%
5-6%
$44,433 交易量
<1%
6-8%
$56,484 交易量
1%
8-10%
$19,080 交易量
<1%
10%以上
$22,382 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96% implied probability of sub-zero S&P 500 returns for Q1 2025, reflecting bearish consensus driven by surging 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6%—their highest since May—amid hotter-than-expected December CPI inflation at 2.9% year-over-year and persistent wage pressures in the January jobs report adding 256,000 nonfarm payrolls. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including recent FOMC minutes signaling only two rate cuts in 2025 versus prior dot plot expectations, have eroded rate-cut hopes, pressuring high-valuation tech megacaps that dominate the index. Policy uncertainty from incoming Trump administration tariff proposals further fuels risk-off sentiment. Upside risks include softer February inflation data or accelerated Fed easing, potentially stabilizing equities near current 5,800 levels ahead of March quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$298,965结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96% implied probability of sub-zero S&P 500 returns for Q1 2025, reflecting bearish consensus driven by surging 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6%—their highest since May—amid hotter-than-expected December CPI inflation at 2.9% year-over-year and persistent wage pressures in the January jobs report adding 256,000 nonfarm payrolls. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including recent FOMC minutes signaling only two rate cuts in 2025 versus prior dot plot expectations, have eroded rate-cut hopes, pressuring high-valuation tech megacaps that dominate the index. Policy uncertainty from incoming Trump administration tariff proposals further fuels risk-off sentiment. Upside risks include softer February inflation data or accelerated Fed easing, potentially stabilizing equities near current 5,800 levels ahead of March quarter-end.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
交易量
$298,965结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96% implied probability of sub-zero S&P 500 returns for Q1 2025, reflecting bearish consensus driven by surging 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6%—their highest since May—amid hotter-than-expected December CPI inflation at 2.9% year-over-year and persistent wage pressures in the January jobs report adding 256,000 nonfarm payrolls. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including recent FOMC minutes signaling only two rate cuts in 2025 versus prior dot plot expectations, have eroded rate-cut hopes, pressuring high-valuation tech megacaps that dominate the index. Policy uncertainty from incoming Trump administration tariff proposals further fuels risk-off sentiment. Upside risks include softer February inflation data or accelerated Fed easing, potentially stabilizing equities near current 5,800 levels ahead of March quarter-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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