Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Project Hail Mary under $35 million for its third domestic weekend at 56% implied probability, driven by tracking estimates pegging a $30-37 million haul amid stiff competition from Universal's Super Mario Galaxy Movie, forecasted for a blockbuster $130 million-plus Easter opening. The Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, buoyed by stellar word-of-mouth and a mere 33% second-weekend drop to $54 million after an $80.5 million record 2026 debut, faces premium large-format screen losses and a family-skewing holiday shift. Solid post-weekend weekdays ($5.4 million Monday, $8 million Tuesday) signal enduring appeal, but new-release dominance and seasonal dynamics cap upside, with resolution hinging on Friday presales and holiday turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于“Project Hail Mary”第三周末票房
“Project Hail Mary”第三周末票房
低于3500万 66%
3500万-3800万 32%
3800万-4100万 9%
>4100万 8%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
低于3500万
57%
3500万-3800万
33%
3800万-4100万
9%
>4100万
8%
低于3500万 66%
3500万-3800万 32%
3800万-4100万 9%
>4100万 8%
最新
最新
2026-04-06
低于3500万
$557 交易量
57%
3500万-3800万
$243 交易量
33%
3800万-4100万
$221 交易量
9%
>4100万
$440 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Project Hail Mary under $35 million for its third domestic weekend at 56% implied probability, driven by tracking estimates pegging a $30-37 million haul amid stiff competition from Universal's Super Mario Galaxy Movie, forecasted for a blockbuster $130 million-plus Easter opening. The Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, buoyed by stellar word-of-mouth and a mere 33% second-weekend drop to $54 million after an $80.5 million record 2026 debut, faces premium large-format screen losses and a family-skewing holiday shift. Solid post-weekend weekdays ($5.4 million Monday, $8 million Tuesday) signal enduring appeal, but new-release dominance and seasonal dynamics cap upside, with resolution hinging on Friday presales and holiday turnout.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$1,461结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Project Hail Mary under $35 million for its third domestic weekend at 56% implied probability, driven by tracking estimates pegging a $30-37 million haul amid stiff competition from Universal's Super Mario Galaxy Movie, forecasted for a blockbuster $130 million-plus Easter opening. The Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, buoyed by stellar word-of-mouth and a mere 33% second-weekend drop to $54 million after an $80.5 million record 2026 debut, faces premium large-format screen losses and a family-skewing holiday shift. Solid post-weekend weekdays ($5.4 million Monday, $8 million Tuesday) signal enduring appeal, but new-release dominance and seasonal dynamics cap upside, with resolution hinging on Friday presales and holiday turnout.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 3 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,461结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Project Hail Mary under $35 million for its third domestic weekend at 56% implied probability, driven by tracking estimates pegging a $30-37 million haul amid stiff competition from Universal's Super Mario Galaxy Movie, forecasted for a blockbuster $130 million-plus Easter opening. The Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, buoyed by stellar word-of-mouth and a mere 33% second-weekend drop to $54 million after an $80.5 million record 2026 debut, faces premium large-format screen losses and a family-skewing holiday shift. Solid post-weekend weekdays ($5.4 million Monday, $8 million Tuesday) signal enduring appeal, but new-release dominance and seasonal dynamics cap upside, with resolution hinging on Friday presales and holiday turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题