Avengers: Doomsday commands a dominant 72% implied probability for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its prime May 1 release slot—ideal for Memorial Day blockbuster contention—and Marvel's unmatched historical precedent, with prior Avengers films like Endgame shattering records at $357 million domestic. Recent San Diego Comic-Con reveals, including the Russo brothers' return to directing and Robert Downey Jr.'s casting as Doctor Doom, have fueled massive trader consensus on MCU event-film supremacy. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% amid strong Spider-Man franchise legs but faces stiffer summer competition in its July slot; lower-tier challengers like Dune: Messiah and Toy Story 5 linger below 3% pending trailer drops and pre-sale buzz, with box office trajectories hinging on holiday and family audience turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于哪部电影在2026年的首映周末最大？
哪部电影在2026年的首映周末最大？
复仇者联盟：末日之战 72%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天 11%
沙丘：弥赛亚 2.3%
玩具总动员5 2.1%
$1,020,500 交易量
$1,020,500 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
复仇者联盟：末日之战
72%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天
11%
沙丘：弥赛亚
2%
玩具总动员5
2%
奥德赛
2%
迈克尔
1%
星球大战：曼达洛人和格罗古
1%
饥饿游戏：收割日的黎明
<1%
天祐号计划
<1%
惊声尖叫7
<1%
复仇者联盟：末日之战 72%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天 11%
沙丘：弥赛亚 2.3%
玩具总动员5 2.1%
$1,020,500 交易量
$1,020,500 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
复仇者联盟：末日之战
$90,239 交易量
72%
蜘蛛侠：全新一天
$26,768 交易量
11%
沙丘：弥赛亚
$81,293 交易量
2%
玩具总动员5
$173,886 交易量
2%
奥德赛
$0 交易量
2%
迈克尔
$482,805 交易量
1%
星球大战：曼达洛人和格罗古
$0 交易量
1%
饥饿游戏：收割日的黎明
$0 交易量
<1%
天祐号计划
$0 交易量
<1%
惊声尖叫7
$42,654 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a dominant 72% implied probability for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its prime May 1 release slot—ideal for Memorial Day blockbuster contention—and Marvel's unmatched historical precedent, with prior Avengers films like Endgame shattering records at $357 million domestic. Recent San Diego Comic-Con reveals, including the Russo brothers' return to directing and Robert Downey Jr.'s casting as Doctor Doom, have fueled massive trader consensus on MCU event-film supremacy. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% amid strong Spider-Man franchise legs but faces stiffer summer competition in its July slot; lower-tier challengers like Dune: Messiah and Toy Story 5 linger below 3% pending trailer drops and pre-sale buzz, with box office trajectories hinging on holiday and family audience turnout.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,020,500结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday commands a dominant 72% implied probability for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its prime May 1 release slot—ideal for Memorial Day blockbuster contention—and Marvel's unmatched historical precedent, with prior Avengers films like Endgame shattering records at $357 million domestic. Recent San Diego Comic-Con reveals, including the Russo brothers' return to directing and Robert Downey Jr.'s casting as Doctor Doom, have fueled massive trader consensus on MCU event-film supremacy. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% amid strong Spider-Man franchise legs but faces stiffer summer competition in its July slot; lower-tier challengers like Dune: Messiah and Toy Story 5 linger below 3% pending trailer drops and pre-sale buzz, with box office trajectories hinging on holiday and family audience turnout.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$1,020,500结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Avengers: Doomsday commands a dominant 72% implied probability for the biggest 2026 opening weekend, driven by its prime May 1 release slot—ideal for Memorial Day blockbuster contention—and Marvel's unmatched historical precedent, with prior Avengers films like Endgame shattering records at $357 million domestic. Recent San Diego Comic-Con reveals, including the Russo brothers' return to directing and Robert Downey Jr.'s casting as Doctor Doom, have fueled massive trader consensus on MCU event-film supremacy. Spider-Man: Brand New Day trails at 11% amid strong Spider-Man franchise legs but faces stiffer summer competition in its July slot; lower-tier challengers like Dune: Messiah and Toy Story 5 linger below 3% pending trailer drops and pre-sale buzz, with box office trajectories hinging on holiday and family audience turnout.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题