Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 (77.5%), driven by Tehran's rejection on April 3 of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire amid escalating hostilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes, injuring Israelis with missile fire, while US President Trump issued ultimatums threatening infrastructure strikes and set a loose two-week wind-down timeline now clouded by defiance. Ongoing search for a missing US pilot from a downed jet signals persistent airstrikes and no de-escalation signals. The six-week conflict, launched February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and missiles, shows no imminent truce, with Israel eyeing energy facilities, positioning near-term resolution dates as low-probability outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Military action through April 30 78%
April 30 3.8%
April 20 1.9%
April 25 1.7%
$212,478 交易量
$212,478 交易量
2026-04-30
April 5
<1%
April 6
1%
April 7
1%
April 8
1%
April 9
1%
April 10
1%
April 11
1%
April 12
1%
April 13
2%
April 14
1%
April 15
1%
April 16
1%
April 17
<1%
April 18
1%
April 19
2%
April 20
2%
April 21
2%
April 22
1%
April 23
1%
April 24
1%
April 25
2%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
1%
April 29
2%
April 30
4%
Military action through April 30
78%
Military action through April 30 78%
April 30 3.8%
April 20 1.9%
April 25 1.7%
$212,478 交易量
$212,478 交易量
2026-04-30
April 5
$12,857 交易量
<1%
April 6
$18,236 交易量
1%
April 7
$8,457 交易量
1%
April 8
$3,174 交易量
1%
April 9
$2,826 交易量
1%
April 10
$3,216 交易量
1%
April 11
$2,346 交易量
1%
April 12
$2,397 交易量
1%
April 13
$2,911 交易量
2%
April 14
$2,437 交易量
1%
April 15
$2,160 交易量
1%
April 16
$2,277 交易量
1%
April 17
$2,454 交易量
<1%
April 18
$2,497 交易量
1%
April 19
$2,772 交易量
2%
April 20
$3,089 交易量
2%
April 21
$2,891 交易量
2%
April 22
$2,592 交易量
1%
April 23
$2,982 交易量
1%
April 24
$2,690 交易量
1%
April 25
$2,978 交易量
2%
April 26
$2,561 交易量
1%
April 27
$2,906 交易量
1%
April 28
$2,060 交易量
1%
April 29
$2,343 交易量
2%
April 30
$3,254 交易量
4%
Military action through April 30
$23,019 交易量
78%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 (77.5%), driven by Tehran's rejection on April 3 of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire amid escalating hostilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes, injuring Israelis with missile fire, while US President Trump issued ultimatums threatening infrastructure strikes and set a loose two-week wind-down timeline now clouded by defiance. Ongoing search for a missing US pilot from a downed jet signals persistent airstrikes and no de-escalation signals. The six-week conflict, launched February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and missiles, shows no imminent truce, with Israel eyeing energy facilities, positioning near-term resolution dates as low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$212,478结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 (77.5%), driven by Tehran's rejection on April 3 of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire amid escalating hostilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes, injuring Israelis with missile fire, while US President Trump issued ultimatums threatening infrastructure strikes and set a loose two-week wind-down timeline now clouded by defiance. Ongoing search for a missing US pilot from a downed jet signals persistent airstrikes and no de-escalation signals. The six-week conflict, launched February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and missiles, shows no imminent truce, with Israel eyeing energy facilities, positioning near-term resolution dates as low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$212,478结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through April 30 (77.5%), driven by Tehran's rejection on April 3 of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire amid escalating hostilities. In the past 24 hours, Iran downed two US warplanes, injuring Israelis with missile fire, while US President Trump issued ultimatums threatening infrastructure strikes and set a loose two-week wind-down timeline now clouded by defiance. Ongoing search for a missing US pilot from a downed jet signals persistent airstrikes and no de-escalation signals. The six-week conflict, launched February 28 targeting Iran's nuclear sites and missiles, shows no imminent truce, with Israel eyeing energy facilities, positioning near-term resolution dates as low-probability outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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