Polymarket traders' 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting reflects the Federal Reserve's March 18 stance maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% target amid solid economic expansion, steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, and low job gains with unemployment at 4.4%. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven oil prices sharply higher, elevating inflation risks and boosting hike odds to 7.2% while capping 25 basis point cut expectations at 13.5%. The dot plot projects just one cut in 2026, aligning trader consensus with official guidance; upcoming April 28-29 and June data releases could influence path if labor softens further or energy shocks persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,827 交易量
$2,247,827 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps decrease 14%
25 bps increase 7.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,247,827 交易量
$2,247,827 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$42,464 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,776 交易量
14%
No change
$43,021 交易量
78%
25 bps increase
$2,085,396 交易量
7%
50+ bps increase
$49,169 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting reflects the Federal Reserve's March 18 stance maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% target amid solid economic expansion, steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, and low job gains with unemployment at 4.4%. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven oil prices sharply higher, elevating inflation risks and boosting hike odds to 7.2% while capping 25 basis point cut expectations at 13.5%. The dot plot projects just one cut in 2026, aligning trader consensus with official guidance; upcoming April 28-29 and June data releases could influence path if labor softens further or energy shocks persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$2,247,827结束日期
Jul 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders' 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting reflects the Federal Reserve's March 18 stance maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% target amid solid economic expansion, steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, and low job gains with unemployment at 4.4%. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven oil prices sharply higher, elevating inflation risks and boosting hike odds to 7.2% while capping 25 basis point cut expectations at 13.5%. The dot plot projects just one cut in 2026, aligning trader consensus with official guidance; upcoming April 28-29 and June data releases could influence path if labor softens further or energy shocks persist.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$2,247,827结束日期
Jul 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' 77.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting reflects the Federal Reserve's March 18 stance maintaining the 3.50%-3.75% target amid solid economic expansion, steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, and low job gains with unemployment at 4.4%. Escalating Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven oil prices sharply higher, elevating inflation risks and boosting hike odds to 7.2% while capping 25 basis point cut expectations at 13.5%. The dot plot projects just one cut in 2026, aligning trader consensus with official guidance; upcoming April 28-29 and June data releases could influence path if labor softens further or energy shocks persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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