Traders on Polymarket price a 73.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and cooling but sticky inflation that tempers expectations for an imminent cut. June nonfarm payrolls added 206,000 jobs against 190,000 estimates, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while June CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually—below forecasts but above the Fed's 2% target. Powell's congressional testimony emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with CME FedWatch aligning on a likely September 25 basis point cut as the first move. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 16%, buoyed by softer PPI and retail sales, while hikes remain fringe at 7.2% amid strong growth signals; watch July 26 PCE inflation for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于No change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.0%
$2,060,717 交易量
$2,060,717 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.0%
$2,060,717 交易量
$2,060,717 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$37,784 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$20,058 交易量
16%
No change
$27,723 交易量
74%
25 bps increase
$1,933,505 交易量
7%
50+ bps increase
$41,647 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders on Polymarket price a 73.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and cooling but sticky inflation that tempers expectations for an imminent cut. June nonfarm payrolls added 206,000 jobs against 190,000 estimates, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while June CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually—below forecasts but above the Fed's 2% target. Powell's congressional testimony emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with CME FedWatch aligning on a likely September 25 basis point cut as the first move. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 16%, buoyed by softer PPI and retail sales, while hikes remain fringe at 7.2% amid strong growth signals; watch July 26 PCE inflation for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$2,060,717结束日期
Jul 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders on Polymarket price a 73.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and cooling but sticky inflation that tempers expectations for an imminent cut. June nonfarm payrolls added 206,000 jobs against 190,000 estimates, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while June CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually—below forecasts but above the Fed's 2% target. Powell's congressional testimony emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with CME FedWatch aligning on a likely September 25 basis point cut as the first move. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 16%, buoyed by softer PPI and retail sales, while hikes remain fringe at 7.2% amid strong growth signals; watch July 26 PCE inflation for potential shifts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$2,060,717结束日期
Jul 29, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders on Polymarket price a 73.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. labor market data and cooling but sticky inflation that tempers expectations for an imminent cut. June nonfarm payrolls added 206,000 jobs against 190,000 estimates, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while June CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually—below forecasts but above the Fed's 2% target. Powell's congressional testimony emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with CME FedWatch aligning on a likely September 25 basis point cut as the first move. Odds for a 25 bps decrease stand at 16%, buoyed by softer PPI and retail sales, while hikes remain fringe at 7.2% amid strong growth signals; watch July 26 PCE inflation for potential shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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