2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

Updated Apr 3, 2026 7:20 PM ET

2026 Midterms Election Odds & Predictions

00
DAYS
00
HOURS
00
MINUTES
00
SECONDS
Trade$100 -> $194
48 REPUBLICANS52 DEMOCRATS
Trade$100 -> $115
197 REPUBLICANS238 DEMOCRATS
Toss up
Lean D
Likely D
Safe D
No race
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

Referendums

top issue markets
$3M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

67% chance no

-3.0%
Trade
$6.0K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

61% chance yes

+8.0%
Trade
NEW

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

84% chance no

+1.0%
Trade

Biggest races

most pivotal markets
$738K Vol

AK Governor

69% Republican

+4%
Trade
$292K Vol

AK Senate

61% Democrat

+0%
Trade
$163K Vol

TX Senate

57% Republican

+1%
Trade

All races

519 markets
Race
State
Fav
Tier
Showing 25 of 50 markets

Midterms 2026 odds

California Governor Election WinnerEric Swalwell
64%
Tom Steyer
10%
Steve Hilton
9%
Matt Mahan
8%
Elaine Culotti
5%
Katie Porter
2%
Chad Bianco
2%
Antonio Villaraigosa
1%
Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich
26%
Bernadette Wilson
22%
Treg Taylor
17%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
14%
Nancy Dahlstrom
9%
Click Bishop
6%
Lisa Murkowski
4%
Mary Peltola
3%
Matt Claman
3%
David Bronson
3%
Bruce Walden
3%
Matt Heilala
2%
Adam Crum
1%
Shelley Hughes
1%
Hank Kroll
1%
Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
39%
Michigan Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
64%
Republican
23%
Texas Senate Election WinnerRepublican
58%
Democrat
43%
KY-04 Republican Primary WinnerThomas Massie
65%
Ed Gallrein
33%
NY-12 Democratic Primary WinnerMicah Lasher
47%
Alex Bores
28%
Jack Schlossberg
19%
George Conway
3%
Erik Bottcher
2%
Cameron Kasky
1%
Lina Khan
1%
Julie Menin
1%
Liz Krueger
1%
Michigan Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
83%
Republican
15%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Republican
74%
Democrat
4%
NY-07 Democratic Primary WinnerClaire Valdez
78%
Antonio Reynoso
21%
Iowa Senate Election WinnerRepublican
64%
Democrat
37%
Ohio Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
55%
Republican
43%
Maine Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
75%
Republican
25%
Montana Senate Election WinnerRepublican
84%
Democrat
9%
AL-01 Republican Primary WinnerRhett Marques
43%
Jerry Carl
41%
Joshua McKee
26%
John Mills
17%
Austin Sidwell
9%
James Dees
6%
James Richardson
3%
Arizona Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
78%
Republican
22%
MN-02 Democratic Primary WinnerMatt Little
45%
Matt Klein
37%
Kaela Berg
25%
TX-38 Republican Primary WinnerJon Bonck
94%
Shelly deZevallos
2%
Jennifer Sundt
1%
Avery Ayers
1%
Michael Pratt
1%
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerShri Thanedar
54%
Donavan McKinney
40%
Nazmul Hassan
3%
Anthony Carbonaro
2%
Shelby Campbell
1%
Nevada Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
60%
Republican
40%
Georgia Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
84%
Republican
16%
UT-01 Democratic Primary WinnerBen McAdams
51%
Nate Blouin
47%
Erin Mendenhall
1%
Brian King
1%
Kathleen Riebe
1%
Jenny Wilson
1%
Luz Escamilla
1%
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerRepublican
86%
Democrat
14%
PA-03 Democratic Primary WinnerSharif Street
41%
Chris Rabb
32%
Ala Stanford
27%
Morgan Cephas
2%
David Oxman
1%
Robin Toldens
1%
New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
85%
Republican
13%
CA-04 Primary WinnersMike Thompson
96%
Eric Jones
91%
John Wesley Tyler
41%
Trevor Merrell
18%
Heath Fulkerson
8%
Sharon Brown
7%
Laurie MacKenzie
7%
Mandy Ghusar
6%
KY-06 Republican Primary WinnerRalph Alvarado
51%
Adam Perez Arquette
23%
Ryan Dotson
13%
Greg Plucinski
6%
MN-05 Democratic Primary WinnerIlhan Omar
86%
Latonya Reeves
14%
Kansas Senate Election WinnerRepublican
86%
Democrat
12%
Minnesota Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
90%
Republican
9%
Oklahoma Governor Election WinnerRepublican
93%
Democrat
7%
Oregon Governor Election WinnerDemocrat
88%
Republican
13%
Mississippi Senate Election WinnerRepublican
90%
Democrat
9%
New Mexico Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
96%
Republican
2%
South Dakota Governor Election WinnerRepublican
94%
Democrat
5%
Florida Governor Election WinnerRepublican
70%
Democrat
24%
CO-08 Democratic Primary WinnerManny Rutinel
73%
Shannon Bird
22%
Yadira Caraveo
2%
Amie Baca-Oehlert
1%
Dave Young
1%
NH-01 Democratic Primary WinnerStefany Shaheen
62%
Maura Sullivan
26%
Carleigh Beriont
11%
Heath Howard
3%
NY-13 Democratic Primary WinnerAdriano Espaillat
64%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
28%
Oscar Romero
4%
James Felton Keith
3%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
1%
Matt Miller
1%
PA-07 Democratic Primary WinnerBob Brooks
72%
Ryan Crosswell
14%
Lamont McClure
9%
Carol Obando-Derstine
2%
Lewis Shupe
1%
IN-07 Democratic Primary WinnerAndré Carson
96%
George Hornedo
3%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
Destiny Scott Wells
1%
Delaware Senate Election WinnerDemocrat
95%
Republican
6%
IA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerChristina Bohannan
96%
Taylor Wettach
2%
Travis Terrell
1%
South Carolina Governor Election WinnerRepublican
89%
Democrat
12%
OH-09 Republican Primary WinnerDerek Merrin
57%
Josh Williams
17%
Madison Sheahan
15%
Alea Nadeem
9%
Anthony Campbell
1%
Wayne Kinsel
1%
Idaho Governor Election WinnerRepublican
94%
Democrat
5%
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWesley Bell
64%
Cori Bush
31%
Kansas Governor Election WinnerRepublican
71%
Democrat
28%
ME-02 Republican Primary WinnerPaul LePage
94%
James Clark
6%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes
34%

About the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

The 2026 United States midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, and will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress alongside a broad range of state and local offices. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, 36 gubernatorial positions across U.S. states, and numerous state legislative, executive, and local races will appear on ballots nationwide. These are the first national midterms to take place during a non-consecutive presidential second term since 1894, as President Donald Trump returns to office following the Republi...

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