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As of today, the most active market is “哈格島不再由伊朗控制... ？,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 10% chance to 8月31日. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

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Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for 伊拉克 shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “哈格島不再由伊朗控制... ？” without ever needing to place a trade.

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Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “KRG在12月31日前宣布脫離伊拉克獨立？,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.