Recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Gulf infrastructure, including a July 18 attack on a Kuwaiti power plant and oil facility plus a missile targeting a Saudi base near Riyadh, have heightened trader focus on further direct action. These followed alleged US strikes on Iranian sites and occurred amid the broader 2026 conflict involving US-Israeli operations, Houthi involvement, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation for reopening the strait and de-escalation talks continue in parallel with renewed US strikes and Gulf state coordination efforts. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these escalation risks alongside signals of possible restraint, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable military incidents within any specified timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,686,155 交易量
2026-07-09
7月9日
是
7月10日
否
7月11日
否
7月12日
是
7月13日
否
7月14日
是
7月15日
否
7月16日
否
7月17日
是
7月18日
是
7月19日
是
7月20日
是
7月21日
否
7月22日
否
7月23日
否
7月24日
否
7月25日
否
7月26日
否
7月27日
否
7月28日
否
7月29日
否
7月30日
是
7月31日
否
$2,686,155 交易量
7月9日
$967,772 交易量
是
7月10日
$67,058 交易量
否
7月11日
$79,225 交易量
否
7月12日
$126,095 交易量
是
7月13日
$154,186 交易量
否
7月14日
$68,880 交易量
是
7月15日
$124,899 交易量
否
7月16日
$33,551 交易量
否
7月17日
$53,966 交易量
是
7月18日
$61,012 交易量
是
7月19日
$83,928 交易量
是
7月20日
$94,493 交易量
是
7月21日
$48,835 交易量
否
7月22日
$57,550 交易量
否
7月23日
$199,651 交易量
否
7月24日
$42,580 交易量
否
7月25日
$29,045 交易量
否
7月26日
$39,353 交易量
否
7月27日
$63,542 交易量
否
7月28日
$27,696 交易量
否
7月29日
$81,414 交易量
否
7月30日
$96,869 交易量
是
7月31日
$84,558 交易量
否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Gulf infrastructure, including a July 18 attack on a Kuwaiti power plant and oil facility plus a missile targeting a Saudi base near Riyadh, have heightened trader focus on further direct action. These followed alleged US strikes on Iranian sites and occurred amid the broader 2026 conflict involving US-Israeli operations, Houthi involvement, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation for reopening the strait and de-escalation talks continue in parallel with renewed US strikes and Gulf state coordination efforts. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these escalation risks alongside signals of possible restraint, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable military incidents within any specified timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$2,686,155結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 是
有爭議
已提議結果: 是
有爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Gulf infrastructure, including a July 18 attack on a Kuwaiti power plant and oil facility plus a missile targeting a Saudi base near Riyadh, have heightened trader focus on further direct action. These followed alleged US strikes on Iranian sites and occurred amid the broader 2026 conflict involving US-Israeli operations, Houthi involvement, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation for reopening the strait and de-escalation talks continue in parallel with renewed US strikes and Gulf state coordination efforts. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these escalation risks alongside signals of possible restraint, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable military incidents within any specified timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,686,155結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 是
有爭議
已提議結果: 是
有爭議
最終結果: 是
Recent Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Gulf infrastructure, including a July 18 attack on a Kuwaiti power plant and oil facility plus a missile targeting a Saudi base near Riyadh, have heightened trader focus on further direct action. These followed alleged US strikes on Iranian sites and occurred amid the broader 2026 conflict involving US-Israeli operations, Houthi involvement, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic mediation for reopening the strait and de-escalation talks continue in parallel with renewed US strikes and Gulf state coordination efforts. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these escalation risks alongside signals of possible restraint, with resolution likely hinging on verifiable military incidents within any specified timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions