Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a mere 12% implied probability to silver (XAG/USD spot or SI futures) reaching $30 by end of March, anchored by current spot prices hovering around $24.90—well below the key threshold amid subdued momentum. This sentiment stems from silver's lag behind gold, with the gold-silver ratio near 85 signaling relative weakness despite industrial demand tailwinds from solar and EV sectors. Macro drivers include persistent USD strength and delayed Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the March 20 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data on March 12, which could spark volatility; historical March volatility averages 15-20%, but traders price in limited upside without a major catalyst like equity selloffs boosting safe-haven flows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$1,153,243 交易量
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
5%
↓ $70
100%
↓ 65美元
55%
↓ $60
19%
↓ 50美元
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
$1,153,243 交易量
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
<1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
2%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
5%
↓ $70
100%
↓ 65美元
55%
↓ $60
19%
↓ 50美元
4%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
<1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
市場開放時間: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a mere 12% implied probability to silver (XAG/USD spot or SI futures) reaching $30 by end of March, anchored by current spot prices hovering around $24.90—well below the key threshold amid subdued momentum. This sentiment stems from silver's lag behind gold, with the gold-silver ratio near 85 signaling relative weakness despite industrial demand tailwinds from solar and EV sectors. Macro drivers include persistent USD strength and delayed Fed rate cut expectations ahead of the March 20 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data on March 12, which could spark volatility; historical March volatility averages 15-20%, but traders price in limited upside without a major catalyst like equity selloffs boosting safe-haven flows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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