Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in June COMEX gold (GC) futures settlement odds, with $4,600-$5,000 at 33% implied probability edging $4,200-$4,600 at 28.2%, reflecting the contract's recent trading around $4,700 amid a 2.9% pullback over the past month. This positioning stems from fresh downside pressure ahead of the May 2026 CPI release, which could signal persistent inflation and curb expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—now projected at just one for the year—while 10-year Treasury yields hover near multi-month highs. Countering this, ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and robust central bank purchases, including de-dollarization flows, sustain safe-haven demand, with ETF inflows adding support. Key swing factors include CPI outcomes and the June FOMC meeting, where hotter-than-expected data could validate the lower bin or escalate volatility toward $5,000+ forecasts from J.P. Morgan.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$4,600-$5,000 33%
$4,200-$4,600 28.2%
5,000至5,400美元 16.6%
5,400至5,800美元 10%
$944,234 交易量
$944,234 交易量
低於$3,800
1%
$3,800-$4,200
9%
$4,200-$4,600
28%
$4,600-$5,000
33%
5,000至5,400美元
17%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
2%
高於$6,200
2%
$4,600-$5,000 33%
$4,200-$4,600 28.2%
5,000至5,400美元 16.6%
5,400至5,800美元 10%
$944,234 交易量
$944,234 交易量
低於$3,800
1%
$3,800-$4,200
9%
$4,200-$4,600
28%
$4,600-$5,000
33%
5,000至5,400美元
17%
5,400至5,800美元
10%
$5,800-$6,200
2%
高於$6,200
2%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in June COMEX gold (GC) futures settlement odds, with $4,600-$5,000 at 33% implied probability edging $4,200-$4,600 at 28.2%, reflecting the contract's recent trading around $4,700 amid a 2.9% pullback over the past month. This positioning stems from fresh downside pressure ahead of the May 2026 CPI release, which could signal persistent inflation and curb expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—now projected at just one for the year—while 10-year Treasury yields hover near multi-month highs. Countering this, ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and robust central bank purchases, including de-dollarization flows, sustain safe-haven demand, with ETF inflows adding support. Key swing factors include CPI outcomes and the June FOMC meeting, where hotter-than-expected data could validate the lower bin or escalate volatility toward $5,000+ forecasts from J.P. Morgan.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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